Abolition of Missile Guidelines... Will Missiles Be Developed to Counter China?

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Although the South Korea-US missile guidelines have ended, the military does not appear to be immediately starting work to extend missile ranges. Currently, the maximum range of missiles developed by the military is 800km. If the range increases even slightly from here, it would immediately encompass parts of China. Military experts evaluate that while the end of the missile guidelines signifies the strong trust in the South Korea-US alliance, it effectively provides a military environment for our forces to check China.

Bound by the missile guidelines, our military has developed the Hyunmoo-4 missile with a warhead weight of 2 tons and a range of 800 km. If a missile with an 800 km range is launched from Jeju Island, it can reach Sinuiju. Even the farthest eastern part of North Korea, the Tumen River, falls within striking range if fired from south of Pohang. This means the missile range to check North Korea is sufficient even now. Of course, depending on where the Hyunmoo-4 is launched, some parts of China can already be within range. However, from the perspective of effectively checking China, the range needs to be at least 1000 to 2000 km or more.

This is a measure that could immediately provoke China's backlash. It could trigger a stronger reaction than the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in 2016. Kim Ki-jung, President of the Korea Institute for National Security Strategy, said at the International Security Conference on the 24th, "The Biden administration's alliance-focused diplomacy is acting like two sides of the same coin with the concept of using alliances to encircle China." Jeong Seong-jang, Director of North Korea Research at the Sejong Institute, also said, "Increasing missile range to check China and Russia, which possess nuclear weapons, is practically an impossible strategy," adding, "It is more efficient to consolidate and operate the missile command units scattered across the military."

China may also oppose the upcoming South Korea-US joint exercises for the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON). The mere presence of US strategic weapons on the Korean Peninsula could be interpreted as building an encirclement network against China led by allied countries. The OPCON transfer issue is also linked to vaccines promised by the US. The military expects that if the US provides 550,000 doses of vaccines for troops, vaccinations can be completed within next month. Early completion of COVID-19 vaccinations for military personnel is expected to positively influence the normal conduct of the second half South Korea-US joint exercises anticipated in August. The future combined command’s Full Operational Capability (FOC) verification for the OPCON transfer, which was postponed to the first half of this year, and the OPCON transfer process can accelerate.

A government official said, "China is protesting issues indirectly or directly related to 'Taiwan,' 'South China Sea,' and 'Quad,' calling them 'rough interference in internal affairs,' but whether it will raise issues about conducting South Korea-US joint exercises remains to be seen."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.