Political Earthquake After April 7 By-elections... Presidential Election Landscape to Be Newly Reshaped After Summer

[Planning] D-8, In-Depth Analysis of By-Elections ⑦ The Road to the Presidential Election

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] The key point to watch in the ‘April 7 by-elections’ is that the opposition party has gained an opportunity to overcome election defeatism. The conservative political forces represented by the People Power Party have suffered four consecutive defeats in major elections, including the 20th general election in 2016, the 2017 presidential election, the 7th nationwide local elections in 2018, and the 21st general election in 2020.

This election was triggered by issues involving metropolitan government heads affiliated with the Democratic Party of Korea. Experts analyze that holding elections in the latter half of the presidential term, when the ‘judgment theory’ is amplified, is itself a burden for the ruling party. In fact, having by-elections for both the Seoul mayor and Busan mayor simultaneously one year before the presidential election is an unprecedented scene in Korean political history.

Professor Lee Jun-han of the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Incheon National University said, "Especially Seoul holds the steering wheel for various elections. If the ruling party wins, it will be advantageous for next year’s presidential election, but if the opposition wins, it will be an opportunity to break free from election defeatism and achieve a turnaround."

On the 25th, the official election campaign for the April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election began, and candidates' election posters were put up in Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

It is also noteworthy that former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol has emerged as a constant in the presidential race, stirring up turbulence in what had been a dull presidential election atmosphere.

From the ruling party’s perspective, losing both the Seoul and Busan mayoral seats simultaneously is the worst-case scenario. The leadership of the political situation would shift to the opposition, and President Moon Jae-in could effectively fall into the quagmire of lame-duck syndrome. If the new mayors of Seoul and Busan soothe the political thirst of opposition supporters with differentiated policies, the flow of the presidential election itself could change.

Professor Park Sang-chul of the Graduate School of Political Studies at Kyonggi University analyzed, "If the opposition wins, there is a high possibility of political realignment centered on the People Power Party platform. The ruling party, facing lame-duck syndrome, may see internal voices emerge that have not been heard before, calling to overcome the Moon administration."

Lee Jae-myung, Governor of Gyeonggi Province, and Lee Nak-yeon, former leader of the Democratic Party, who lead the ruling party’s two-power structure, are expected to seek political changes to overcome the by-election defeat. However, the general view is that unless the ruling party resorts to political recklessness to nominate a so-called ‘pro-Moon pure-blood’ presidential candidate, the situation will not develop into extreme scenarios such as demands for a specific presidential candidate’s defection or the president’s party membership withdrawal.

On the 29th, ballot papers to be used in the April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election are being printed at a printing company in Anyang, Gyeonggi Province. / Anyang - Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

If the ruling party wins both Seoul and Busan, the path to the presidential election is expected to be smooth. Even if the ruling party only retains Seoul, it holds political significance greater than half a victory. It can manage the crisis in the political situation and create an opportunity for a turnaround. From the opposition’s perspective, although disappointing, a 1-1 result is meaningful in that it breaks the chain of election defeats.

Both ruling and opposition parties are expected to intensify political struggles among major presidential candidates during the next party leadership election. President Moon is likely to maintain distance from the presidential election and focus on key state affairs such as COVID-19 response and real estate stabilization. Former Prosecutor General Yoon, the frontrunner in the outdoor presidential race, is interpreted by experts as likely to increase his political value regardless of the opposition’s election results.

Choosing not to support the by-election campaign directly this time and instead emphasizing the ‘political meaning’ of voting is evaluated as a choice that maintained political stature while managing risks.

Professor Kim Min-jeon of the College of Humanitas at Kyung Hee University said, "It is unclear whether former Prosecutor General Yoon will form an independent party or join after the opposition merger phase, so political realignment may proceed more slowly than expected. The formation of the (presidential) race is likely to take at least until after this summer."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.