[Comprehensive Report 2] Possibility of North Korean Version of Iskander and ATACMS

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea launched unidentified projectiles into the East Sea on the 25th.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff stated, "Our military detected two short-range missiles launched from the Hamju area in South Hamgyong Province toward the East Sea at around 7:06 a.m. and 7:25 a.m. today," adding, "The flight distance was approximately 450 km, and the altitude was about 60 km."

Some military circles are suggesting the possibility of ballistic missile launches. If this is indeed the first ballistic missile launch since the Biden administration took office, it would be the first in about a year since North Korea claimed to have fired a 'super-large multiple rocket launcher' from Wonsan, Gangwon Province, on March 29 last year. Additionally, ballistic missiles violate UN Security Council sanctions regardless of their range.

Earlier, the Japan Coast Guard also announced information around 7:09 a.m. that day, stating, "Something that could be a ballistic missile was launched from North Korea," according to foreign media reports.

Unlike the cruise missiles reportedly launched by North Korea on the 21st, ballistic missiles violate UN Security Council resolutions, drawing attention to the international community's response, including the United States.

North Korea is developing a new weapons trio consisting of a new tactical guided missile (tactical guided weapon, North Korean version of Iskander), a super-large multiple rocket launcher, and a North Korean version of ATACMS. Military experts note that since the number of test launches of the upgraded new tactical guided missile and the North Korean version of ATACMS is insufficient, additional launches cannot be ruled out.

It has not yet been confirmed whether North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un observed this missile launch. Based on past North Korean media reporting practices, if Chairman Kim observed the launch, it is expected to be reported the following day, on the 26th.

A military official explained, "South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies are placing weight on the possibility that this missile was a 'short-range ballistic missile' launched from the ground."

Authorities in the United States and Japan also confirmed the missiles as ballistic. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga told reporters, "North Korea launched two ballistic missiles," and U.S. CNN cited a senior U.S. official saying the projectiles were two ballistic missiles.

This ballistic missile launch is the first in about a year since North Korea claimed to have fired a 'super-large multiple rocket launcher' from Wonsan, Gangwon Province, on March 29 last year.

North Korea is developing a new weapons trio consisting of a new tactical guided missile (tactical guided weapon, North Korean version of Iskander), a super-large multiple rocket launcher, and a North Korean version of ATACMS. The military assesses that since the number of test launches of the upgraded new tactical guided missile and the North Korean version of ATACMS is insufficient, the possibility of additional launches is high. This means that it cannot be ruled out that the missiles were launched consecutively from the launchers of the upgraded new tactical guided missile, which can carry two ballistic missiles, and the North Korean version of ATACMS. In 2019, North Korea revealed a tracked mobile launcher vehicle (TEL) equipped with two launch tubes when it launched the upgraded new tactical guided missile.

North Korea has been conducting test launches to reduce the firing interval of new weapons. The firing interval of the super-large multiple rocket launcher launched in September 2019 was 19 minutes. Subsequently, it was shortened to 3 minutes in October and 30 seconds in November. The Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that the firing interval of the super-large multiple rocket launcher last March was 20 seconds. It is analyzed that North Korea has already reduced the firing interval, completed operational readiness for surprise attack capability, and is conducting proficiency training.

The military evaluates that North Korea is highly likely to carry out additional provocations in the future. In a report on the summary of the 8th Party Congress business in January, Chairman Kim Jong-un stated, "The task of possessing nuclear submarines and underwater-launched nuclear strategic weapons, which have significant importance in enhancing nuclear long-range strike capabilities, has been set." He also unveiled the Pukguksong-5, an upgraded version of the existing submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), so additional SLBM launches cannot be ruled out.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff said regarding signs of additional launches, "We are preparing for such possibilities," but emphasized, "There is nothing specific to report."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.