Oh > Park, Support Gap Widens Further After Unification

Oh Leads in All Age Groups Except 40s
Democratic Party's Organizational Strength Is Key

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] Since the unification of opposition candidates, the support gap between the ruling and opposition Seoul mayoral candidates has widened. In the first poll conducted after the unification decision of the two candidates, Oh Se-hoon and Ahn Cheol-soo (on the 23rd), the support rate gap between Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party and Park Young-sun of the Democratic Party reached 18.5 percentage points. This is 1.4 percentage points wider than the head-to-head poll conducted by the same organization ten days earlier.

According to a survey conducted by Realmeter on the 24th targeting 806 residents aged 18 and over in Seoul, commissioned by OhmyNews on the 25th, more than half of the respondents, 55.0%, supported candidate Oh. Park’s support rate was 36.5%. The gap between the two candidates was 18.5 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error (±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level).

By age group, candidate Oh led candidate Park in all age groups except those in their 40s. Notably, the support gap between Oh (60.1%) and Park (21.1%) among those in their 20s (aged 18-29) is nearly threefold. In the so-called 'concrete support base' of people in their 40s, Oh’s support rate was 34.7%, while Park’s was 57.9%.

The support gap between the two candidates has become more entrenched since the unification of the opposition candidates.

After candidate Oh was selected as the final candidate of the People Power Party, in a head-to-head poll conducted by Realmeter on the 13th-14th commissioned by Munhwa Ilbo, Oh (54.5%) led Park (37.4%) by 17.1 percentage points. At that time, the gap was also well beyond the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), and this pattern seems to have solidified after the unification of the opposition candidates.

Professor Choi Chang-ryeol of Yongin University analyzed, "It is difficult to explain a gap close to 20 percentage points by personality and policies alone," adding, "This election has become that much of a 'judgment on the regime'." However, he predicted, "It will be difficult for such a gap to persist," and noted, "The organizational strength of the Democratic Party and the loosening cohesion of conservatives could be key factors."

For detailed polling information, please refer to the Realmeter or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission websites.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.