Ahn Cheol-soo Engages in Another Poll 'Saba Fight,' Will He Win the Unification Showdown?

Ahn Cheol-soo and Geum Tae-seop Unite Candidates Through Competitiveness Poll
Ahn Cheol-soo Prefers Competitiveness Poll Method
Attention on Whether 'Competitiveness Poll' Will Be Applied in People Power Party's Unification Method

[Asia Economy Reporters Naju-seok and Park Jun-i] As the unification of the third zone involving Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, and former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop enters its final stage through public opinion polls, attention is focusing on the method of unifying opposition candidates. Since both sides have agreed to unify candidates through a public opinion poll method that asks about ‘competitiveness,’ there is keen interest in whether the same method will be applied in the future unification process with the People Power Party’s Seoul mayoral candidate.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 26th, Ahn appeared on YTN Radio’s ‘Hwang Bo-seon’s Start of a New Morning’ and said, “The primary with former lawmaker Geum will be conducted 100% through a citizen public opinion poll, a competitiveness survey,” adding, “The People Power Party also uses a 100% public opinion poll method, so there are already precedents. If we refer to and respect those precedents, it won’t take long.”

In summary, Ahn hopes that the ‘competitiveness’ survey method used for unification with candidate Geum will become the method for the opposition unified candidate primary against the People Power Party’s Seoul mayoral candidate. The day before, on the 24th, Ahn also mentioned on MBC Radio’s ‘Kim Jong-bae’s Focus’ that “This time, since the purpose of selecting the opposition unified candidate is to win the election, I think conducting a competitiveness survey fits that purpose.”

Although Ahn has already agreed with former lawmaker Geum on unification through public opinion polls, there has been public attention on what the survey questions will be like. This is because it could set a ‘precedent’ for the future unification process with the People Power Party. The unification between Ahn and Geum will be decided through public opinion polls conducted over two days, the 27th and 28th.

This is essentially a tug-of-war. In ssireum (Korean wrestling), the outcome of the match is greatly influenced by how the wrestlers grip the satba (belt) before the match officially begins, and it is common to see prolonged battles over how to hold the satba. In the opposition unification method, Ahn has already entered this satba battle first.

Being sensitive to the wording of public opinion poll questions is because even with the same polling method, results can vary depending on the questions asked. For example, asking “Which candidate is more competitive against the Democratic Party candidate?”, “Between the following two candidates, who do you think is more suitable as the Seoul mayoral candidate?”, or “Please choose your preferred candidate between the two” can yield different results. This is because asking who can win, who you support, and who is expected to manage the city better are different questions.

Experts had already predicted that Ahn would prefer a competitiveness public opinion poll. This is because it is the most optimized question for Ahn, not only in unification with former lawmaker Geum but also when considering unification of opposition candidates.

Realmeter’s expert member Bae Cheol-ho said, “Looking at public opinion polls from late last year and early this year, Ahn consistently led in terms of competitiveness in hypothetical matchups for Seoul mayor. Meanwhile, leading People Power Party candidates Na Kyung-won and Oh Se-hoon are known by Seoul citizens to be trailing in competition against the ruling party candidate,” adding, “People will think that if the opposition candidate is to win, it would be Ahn.” He continued, “For this reason, it is natural that Ahn would demand a public opinion poll method that asks who is competitive against the ruling party candidate.”

There are also criticisms that using a competitiveness survey for unification with former lawmaker Geum is ambiguous. An Il-won, CEO of Research View, said, “Conducting a competitiveness public opinion poll without specifying the opposing candidate is ambiguous,” adding, “Although one Democratic Party candidate is known to have an advantage, at this point, competitiveness can only be measured against a hypothetical Democratic candidate, which lacks concreteness.” For a competitiveness survey to be persuasive, the opposing candidate must be specified first, and then which candidate is more competitive should be confirmed. Since the Democratic Party candidate has not yet been decided, setting a competitive scenario with a hypothetical figure is an uncommon polling method.

Despite the ambiguity of the competitiveness survey, pushing this question reflects Ahn’s strong will for a competitiveness-based opposition unification method.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In the past, Ahn had a fierce debate over the public opinion poll method during the unification process with Moon Jae-in, then the Democratic United Party candidate, in the 2012 presidential election.

At that time, Ahn’s side demanded a competitiveness method, while Moon’s side requested a suitability method. Ahn wanted to ask, “Who do you think can beat Park Geun-hye, the Saenuri Party candidate?” but Moon’s side wanted to ask, “Who should be the opposition candidate?” Ahn argued that unification should be based on who can win the election, but Moon’s side insisted that the question should cover not only winning the election but also who would govern better. The two sides engaged in a protracted dispute over the unification issue.

Interestingly, the Seoul mayoral candidate situation now is similar to that time. Ahn, already known to Seoul citizens as a competitive candidate based on public opinion polls, prefers a competitiveness survey. On the other hand, the trailing People Power Party candidate, as the main opposition party and holding the position of the main opposition in the Seoul City Council with administrative experience, needs to emphasize stable administrative capability. Logically, like Moon’s side in 2012, it is reasonable for them to demand a suitability survey.

Some in political circles predict that despite the People Power Party and Ahn’s declaration to complete opposition candidate unification early, the process could be prolonged. This is because the issue of opposition unification can generate public interest. Therefore, the method of candidate unification could become a battleground over primary rules, contrary to the initial agreement between the two sides. It is expected to be like a long satba battle, dragging out time. In ssireum, a moment’s judgment on how to grip the satba or shoulder position can determine the outcome of the match.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.