EIU: "Korea, Japan, and Others to Achieve COVID-19 Herd Immunity by Mid-Next Year"
[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] The British economic analysis firm Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted that South Korea's COVID-19 herd immunity will be achieved by mid-next year.
On the 21st (local time), the EIU analyzed in its report "COVID-19 Vaccines: Delays Expected" that even in developed countries, the herd immunity process through COVID-19 vaccination will only be completed by mid-next year.
Regarding the timing of widespread vaccination completion by country, the EIU projected that most European countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany will complete it by late this year. South Korea, along with Japan, Australia, and Russia, is expected to reach this point by mid-next year. Due to their large populations, China and India are expected by the EIU to continue mass vaccinations until late next year. Most middle-income countries are also expected to complete widespread vaccination by late next year. The EIU forecasted that most poor countries, including those in Africa, will only begin widespread vaccination in earnest in 2023 due to shortages of vaccine storage facilities and healthcare personnel.
The EIU cited vaccine demand exceeding supply and vaccination costs as obstacles to vaccination. It reported that some countries, mainly developed ones, have pre-ordered about 6.4 billion doses, roughly half of the 12.5 billion doses planned for production by major pharmaceutical companies this year.
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The EIU expects that by next month, several European countries including the United States and the United Kingdom will have completed vaccinations for priority groups such as the elderly, people with underlying conditions, and healthcare workers. Other developed countries are also expected to finish vaccinating priority groups by June, and from mid-this year, the economic effects of vaccination are expected to become visible, according to the EIU.
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