[Presidential Election Jinx③] 'Masters of Administration' Who Shrink When Standing on the Presidential Election Track

Former Prime Minister-Turned-Politician Faces Painful Memories in Presidential Race... Lee Nak-yeon, a Politician with Rich Experience, Challenges Political Jinx

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's NoteWith 1 year and 1 month remaining until the 2022 presidential election, the top three candidates in the 'next presidential candidate' approval ratings are Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, and Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon. They each have backgrounds as a Gyeonggi Province governor, a prosecutor, and a prime minister, respectively. An interesting point is that since the introduction of direct elections in 1987, none of the past presidents have come from the ranks of Gyeonggi Province governors, prosecutors, or prime ministers. This series of three articles diagnoses the 'presidential election jinx' surrounding the careers of Governor Lee Jae-myung, Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, and Leader Lee Nak-yeon.

① The frequent visitor to the 'presidential election fortune-teller,' the Gyeonggi governor, and the strange 'Blue House compatibility'

② The vast political sea even the 'People's Prosecutor' found hard to cross

③ The 'masters of administration' who shrink only when standing on the presidential election track

Lee Nak-yeon, Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea. / Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

The prime minister is called the 'prepared president.' The great advantage is that by overseeing all government ministries, the prime minister can comprehensively manage state affairs. The term 'stability' often follows those who have served as prime minister. This is a significant asset for politicians. This is why individuals who have served as prime ministers in past administrations often emerge as presidential candidates.

A representative figure is former Prime Minister Ko Gun, nicknamed the 'master of administration.' At one point, Ko Gun's presidential candidate approval rating surpassed 30%, making him the leading figure in the prevailing trend. Influential figures gathered around him. There was even talk that there were enough talents around him to form several cabinets. However, Ko Gun's presidential bid remains a painful memory.

In January 2007, Ko Gun announced his withdrawal from the presidential race and decided to quit all political activities. This was a shock to supporters who were ready to trust and follow him. Due to the intense atmosphere of supporters urging him not to withdraw, he was unable to hold a proper press conference. Instead, he conveyed his resignation through a two-page A4 leaflet.

Even the 'prepared president' known as the master of administration faced a high wall at the Blue House. Other politicians who had served as prime ministers also had to turn back after reaching the threshold of the Blue House.

Although former Future United Party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn has a different life history from Ko Gun, who lived a traditional bureaucratic life, he is also a former prime minister. Hwang Kyo-ahn was once regarded as the undisputed number one among opposition presidential candidates. However, since the 21st general election in April 2020, he has stepped back from active politics. He is recently seeking a political comeback through the release of his autobiography, but it is uncertain whether he will get another chance.

Former Democratic Party leader Lee Hae-chan, who announced his retirement last year, also made his name as a prime minister. Lee Hae-chan also has experience running for president. He declared his candidacy in the 2007 presidential election but had to give up after failing to pass the party primary. In terms of political career and government experience, Lee Hae-chan has a comparative advantage, but running for president is a different matter altogether.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

There have been more than a few prime minister-turned-politicians who started presidential bids but gave up. The 2022 presidential election is expected to be another test for politicians who have served as prime ministers. Can Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon, who served as the first prime minister under the Moon Jae-in administration, change the dark history of prime ministers in presidential elections?

Lee Nak-yeon's strength is stability. Having served as governor of Jeollanam-do, he also has a regional base in Honam. The Democratic Party's internal organization is also evaluated to be ahead of his competitors. He is expected to show considerable competitiveness in the Democratic Party's primary. However, stability alone is not enough to overcome the waves of a presidential election.

The reason why prime minister-turned politicians have struggled in presidential races is the paradox of stability. The expectation that he will perform his role without difficulty if entrusted with state affairs is a plus, but the weakening of expectations for 'new politics' is a minus. The presidential election is a process of selecting a political leader responsible for the future.

To overcome the high wall of the presidential election, he must present a future vision and the spirit of the times that go beyond the stable governance ability demonstrated during his prime ministership. Lee Nak-yeon experienced approval ratings exceeding 40% in some polls shortly after last year's general election. At that time, he was even evaluated as having established a dominant position, but as of now, 1 year and 1 month before the presidential election, his approval rating has fallen to third place.

If he fails to quickly create an opportunity for a rebound, he may face an even more difficult political environment. He plans to step down from his party leadership position in March to prepare for his presidential bid. This could be a political opportunity. As the ruling party leader, there are limits to expressing personal opinions on political issues and policies.

He must use refined language based on communication with the Blue House and within the ruling party. After stepping down from the party leadership, he can shed political pressure and pursue his own politics. This is a double-edged sword for politician Lee Nak-yeon. It could be a stepping stone for a leap forward but could also lead to political risks. The political battle that will continue for several months after stepping down will likely be the most important challenge in his life.

The by-elections for Seoul mayor and Busan mayor scheduled for April 7 will be an opportunity to showcase political leader Lee Nak-yeon's capabilities. Depending on the ruling party's results, the presidential election trajectory of politician Lee Nak-yeon is also expected to change.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.