The 'Train' of Third Zone Unification Has Departed... But Its Success Potential Is 'Still' Uncertain

No Clear Factors Driving Primary Election Excitement Yet
Large Support Rate Gap... Geum Tae-seop's Performance Key to Success
Low Likelihood of Participation from Heo Kyung-young and Others

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] After many twists and turns, the opposition candidates for the Seoul mayoral by-election have each been decided by the People Power Party and the third zone, respectively, and the schedule was arranged to proceed with unification in early March. This is a tentative conclusion reached after much debate, ranging from Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, urging to join the main opposition party, the People Power Party, to demands to open the People Power Party’s Seoul mayoral primary platform to allow candidates from other parties, including Ahn.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Although discussions on the third zone primary have begun, there is still a long way to go. The scope of openness in the unification method is also a contentious issue. For example, it is not yet clear whether even Heo Kyung-young, leader of the National Revolutionary Party, can be consolidated into the third zone. However, after Ahn and former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop met at the National Assembly on the 4th and discussed, a basic framework was established. After the meeting, Geum told reporters, "There is a risk that it might appear exclusive or even be ridiculed, so Ahn will make a reasonable judgment, but opening the door can only happen if both candidates agree."

In addition, the unification timing is generally expected to align with the People Power Party’s schedule, which will decide its candidate on March 4, and the third zone primary is also likely to be held accordingly. Due to difficulties with direct voting, the most likely unification method is through opinion polls.

Although the process has started, the key issue is whether the primary will attract public interest. The 'convention effect,' where support rates rise after a political event, is absolutely necessary for the third zone primary. Maintaining attention on the primary amid the major ruling and opposition parties, the Democratic Party and People Power Party, is the first condition for the third zone primary’s success.

To attract interest in the primary, competitive candidate clashes or hot primary issues are required.

For the primary to be successful, a fierce contest between Ahn and former lawmaker Geum is the key card. Given that Ahn is already far ahead in support rates, if there is no narrowing of the gap or noteworthy issues arise, the third zone primary will find it difficult to capture voters’ attention.

Conscious of this, former lawmaker Geum has demanded more opportunities for debates. From proposing third zone unification to meetings with Ahn, he has repeatedly called for broad and frequent debates to encourage voters’ rational choices. His plan is to create issues through dialogue and debate and raise his relatively lower recognition compared to Ahn.

However, although Geum requested holding a debate before the Lunar New Year, progress has yet to be made.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.