KT Big Data Analysis: "Population Movement Drastically Decreased After Ban on Gatherings of Five or More"

[Asia Economy Reporter Seulgina Jo] It has been revealed that population movement significantly decreased after the government’s ban on gatherings of five or more people at the end of last month.

KT disclosed the results of an analysis of big data from the COVID-19 pandemic period last year on the 7th. This was conducted by the KT Digital & Biohealth P-TF to derive implications on the first anniversary of the domestic outbreak of COVID-19, based on KT communication data analyzing changes in floating population by district in Seoul, comparisons of ‘social buzz (buzz: mentions on specific topics)’ from news and SNS, and fluctuations in confirmed case numbers.

According to the floating population big data analyzed by KT, the ‘ban on gatherings of five or more people’ implemented on December 23 last year had a practical effect in curbing the spread of COVID-19. Although the population movement in Seoul began to increase starting four days before the ban was enforced, once the ban took effect and the Christmas holiday began, movement sharply declined, and subsequently, the number of confirmed cases also started to decrease. It is analyzed that timely response aligned with the year-end increase in floating population helped slow the rise in confirmed cases.

It was also found that citizens acted proactively even before the government raised the social distancing level. Looking at the trend from August 1 to December 31, 2020, population movement within Seoul had already begun to decrease before November 24, when the government strengthened quarantine measures in response to rising COVID-19 cases. Citizens voluntarily reduced their movement while monitoring the increase in confirmed cases.

Additionally, analysis of the third wave of COVID-19 (from November 1 to December 31, 2020) showed a different pattern compared to the first and second waves. During the first wave in March and the second wave in August last year, decreases in population movement occurred immediately following increases in confirmed cases, but during the third wave, the decline in movement was somewhat slower. This indicates that citizens’ response speed was slower compared to the first and second waves.

During the same period, social buzz volume (keyword ‘corona’) on platforms like Twitter and online communities decreased despite a significant increase in confirmed cases during the third wave compared to the first and second waves. This is interpreted as a result of increased citizen fatigue due to prolonged quarantine measures and a learning effect regarding COVID-19.

Districts with high inflow of population from other districts also showed higher confirmed case ratios (confirmed cases relative to the district’s resident population). Jung-gu and Jongno-gu, which had the highest inflow from other districts, recorded confirmed case ratios of 0.18% and 0.21%, respectively. However, Gangseo-gu and Jungnang-gu had high confirmed case ratios despite low inflow rates due to cluster infections occurring locally (Gangseo-gu: dance academy on November 26, religious facility on December 12; Jungnang-gu: religious facility at the end of December).

Examining the increase in confirmed cases and population movement during the third wave in detail, districts where confirmed cases increased even after the ban on gatherings of five or more people showed relatively lower decreases in inflow population compared to districts where cases did not increase. For example, Yeongdeungpo-gu saw a decrease in confirmed cases after the ban, while Geumcheon-gu experienced a continuous increase. Before the ban, Yeongdeungpo-gu had a greater reduction in inflow population from other districts than Geumcheon-gu, which is believed to be due to differences in types of workplaces and working conditions.

Kim Hyung-wook, Vice President and Head of KT Future Value Promotion Office, said, “Through big data analysis, we were able to confirm the trends in COVID-19 confirmed cases and changes in floating population according to quarantine policies. Now, as we face the prolonged COVID-19 situation, a delicate approach considering both citizen fatigue and dissatisfaction as well as economic revitalization is necessary. KT will continue to provide valuable big data that can help ensure public safety and support quarantine efforts.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.