"Last Year Southeast Region Exports Decreased by 16% Compared to Previous Year"

BNK Economic Research Institute Report
"This Year Expected to Rise 12% Compared to Last Year"

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyo-jin] A study has revealed that exports from the Southeast region significantly declined compared to the previous year.

BNK Economic Research Institute, affiliated with BNK Financial Group, announced a research report titled ‘2021 Southeast Region Export Outlook’ on the 28th containing these findings.

According to the report, last year’s exports from the Southeast region recorded $103.3 billion, a 15.9% decrease compared to the previous year.

This decline is equivalent to that during the global financial crisis in 2009. It is interpreted as a result of the sharp drop in global import demand caused by the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19).

However, regional exports have gradually reduced the rate of decline since hitting a low point in April last year (-38.1%), raising expectations for recovery. Notably, in December last year, the growth rate turned positive for the first time in 11 months.

The institute forecasted that this year, Southeast region exports will record $116 billion, a 12.3% increase from the previous year, driven by base effects, global economic improvement, and recovery in demand industries.

Nevertheless, uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the US-China trade dispute are expected to act as limiting factors, making it difficult to recover to the 2019 level ($122.8 billion).

By key industries, the shipbuilding industry is expected to shift to an increasing trend supported by global economic recovery and normalization of production and delivery procedures.

The institute anticipates that the increase in LNG ship deliveries, which accounted for about 40% (9.18 million CGT) of the total domestic orders (23.21 million CGT) during 2018?2019, will drive export growth. It projected this year’s Southeast region shipbuilding export performance to rise 8.3% year-on-year to $17.3 billion.

"Car Industry Rebound Expected Due to Recovery in Consumer Sentiment"

The automobile industry is expected to rebound sharply due to base effects, recovery in global consumer sentiment, and increased demand for electric vehicles.

The launch of new vehicles based on Hyundai Motor’s electric vehicle dedicated platform (E-GMP (Electric-Global Modular Platform)) and the start of Renault Samsung Motors’ XM3 exports to Europe are expected to accelerate export growth, with this year’s performance projected to reach $20.5 billion, a 19.6% increase from the previous year.

The petroleum refining industry is forecasted to record a high growth rate due to a rebound in global demand and price recovery following oil price increases, with export performance expected to rise 16.1% year-on-year to $12.3 billion this year.

Despite ongoing concerns about oversupply, the petrochemical industry is expected to record $8.2 billion, a 9.4% increase from the previous year, driven by China’s economic recovery, rising export prices, and improved competitiveness of NCC companies.

The steel industry is anticipated to record $5.7 billion, a 9.9% increase year-on-year, supported by improvements in major global downstream industries such as construction and automobiles, and reduced crude steel production due to China’s carbon reduction policies. The machinery industry is expected to see export performance rise 8.8% year-on-year to $15.9 billion, supported by improvements in manufacturing conditions and expanded capital investment in major countries.

Jung Young-doo, head of BNK Economic Research Institute, said, “Exports from the Southeast region this year are expected to show a favorable growth trend due to the recovery of global consumption and investment following the containment of COVID-19,” adding, “The rebound in key manufacturing exports is expected to play a driving role in revitalizing the regional economy.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.