Hyundai Motor: "Global Car Market to Grow 9% This Year... Only China Recovers to Pre-COVID Levels"

[Asia Economy Reporter Suyeon Woo] The Hyundai Motor Group Global Management Research Institute forecasted that the global automobile market will increase by 9% from the previous year to 79.1 million units this year. Amid a 16% sharp decline in global market demand last year due to the impact of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), it is expected that most regions except China will find it difficult to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels this year.

On the 12th, Lee Dong-heon, head of the Hyundai Motor Group Global Management Research Institute, announced this forecast through an online seminar of the Korea Automobile Journalists Association titled "2020 Global Automobile Market Review and 2021 Outlook." Lee projected that the global automobile market will show a recovery trend, with 37.23 million units sold in the first half of the year, a 21% increase from the previous year, and 41.87 million units in the second half, reaching a similar level.

Source: Hyundai Motor Global Management Research Institute

Due to the base effect from the impact of COVID-19 last year, sales are expected to surge in the first half, but the recovery pace will weaken in the second half, resulting in an annual increase of 9%. However, there will be differentiated recovery speeds by region, and China is the only region expected to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels this year.

Looking at the expected recovery levels by market compared to 2019, China is forecasted at 103%, Korea at 99%, the United States at 91%, Europe at 85%, and emerging markets at 92%. Lee said, "Sales in the United States, EU, and emerging markets, excluding China, will find it difficult to recover to pre-COVID levels this year," adding, "Especially in emerging markets, where there are risks of debt and political instability, there is also a possibility of a sharp decline in sales."

Expected Recovery Level of Regional Automobile Markets in 2021 Compared to 2019 / Data = Hyundai Motor Group Global Management Research Institute

However, supported by each country's eco-friendly vehicle policies, the electric vehicle market is expected to expand to about 2.35 million units this year, a 38% increase from the previous year. Last year, despite the crisis caused by the spread of COVID-19, the electric vehicle market recorded 1.7 million units, a 3.5% increase.

Meanwhile, the research institute also summarized and introduced five changes in the automobile market after COVID-19: ▲Differentiated recovery speeds by region ▲Polarization of purchasing preferences by region ▲Expansion of online sales and subscription services ▲Acceleration of electric vehicle growth ▲Polarization of performance among manufacturers.

First, Lee predicted that there will be differences in market recovery speeds by region, with China and the United States showing faster recovery than emerging markets. He mentioned that in advanced markets, sales will expand mainly in higher vehicle segments, while in emerging markets experiencing economic recession, sales will expand mainly in lower vehicle segments that emphasize economic efficiency, leading to polarization in purchasing preferences by region.

Additionally, with the spread of contactless consumption trends, online sales and vehicle subscription services will expand, and with the expansion of major governments' eco-friendly vehicle policies, the growth of the electric vehicle market will accelerate, ultimately intensifying the polarization of performance among automobile manufacturers.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.