[Lee Myung-ho's Future Preview] Post-Corona Year Zero: The Importance of Digital, Artificial Intelligence, and Low Carbon

Untact and Ontact All Digital-Based... Strengthening Continuity of Digital Transformation
Increased Interest in Natural Environment and Renewable Energy... AI and Low-Carbon Economy Transition 'Essential'

At the start of a new year, forecasts for the year ahead emerge from various places. Although yesterday and today may not differ much, the difference of a single day defines the year. Despite being just a day's difference, reflecting on the past year and planning for the coming one has become the nature of humans and society. Between reflection and planning lies forecasting. Without reflection?looking back, realizing, regretting, and reconsidering?forecasting cannot arise. Since there can be no present without a past, and no future without a present, future plans are made through reflection on what has passed. The reason for reflection is that continuity and discontinuity exist between the past, present, and future. Yesterday has continuity with today, but tomorrow has discontinuity from today, which is why forecasting is necessary. Forecasting must consider what will continue and what will change to enable planning.

Forecasting is a tightrope walk between continuity and discontinuity. Therefore, it is easy to fall off the tightrope. Misaligned forecasts can cause significant shocks to individuals, companies, and nations. Of course, they can bring good results, but often they cause confusion. At the beginning of last year, no one forecasted the COVID-19 global pandemic. Although the possibility of new infectious diseases was consistently raised, who could have guaranteed that it would occur last year and cause over 1.8 million casualties? While forecasts can be wrong, this year we also look ahead to the year. Hoping for a year different from last year, to seize new opportunities, and to hold onto hope. Because continuity and discontinuity are life, society, and history, forecasting inevitably continues.

Now, let us forecast the new year 2021, the post-COVID-19 year zero. The most urgent concern is when the pandemic will end. The WHO (World Health Organization) will likely not declare the pandemic over by the end of this year, despite having declared it in March last year. Although COVID-19 vaccinations have begun, it is unlikely that more than two-thirds of the global population will be vaccinated by year-end. Poor countries cannot purchase enough vaccines, and in developed countries, vaccine hesitancy exists. Similar to mask refusal, the logic that if others get vaccinated, I do not need to, and concerns about side effects will not easily disappear. Of course, the issue of virus variants remains, but by the end of this year, the serious situation will be alleviated. However, since the virus has spread worldwide, the declaration of the end will likely extend beyond this year.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Strengthened the Continuity of Digital Transformation

With vaccine distribution, the global economy will recover rapidly. Previous economic crises were due to structural problems in finance or industry, taking 2-3 years to resolve. Economies contracted by external shocks will recover faster than vaccine distribution. However, not all industries will return to their previous state. The shock brought by COVID-19 still lingers in people's minds, restricting behavior. Fear of new diseases will make people cautious about unfamiliar places and contact with others. Demand for digital alternatives will continue to increase. Traditional service industries and self-employed businesses targeting people will still face difficulties, while digital-related industries will lead economic growth. There will be significant differences in economic recovery and growth by industry.

The pandemic has reinforced the continuity of digitalization and digital transformation. Untact, ontact, and homeconomy all rely on digital technology. Digital products and services targeting individuals will expand even after the pandemic. Digital use in financial transactions, online shopping, gaming, video streaming services, video conferencing, remote work, and home training (home training) will increase consumption and daily life through digital device screens. Face-to-face and paper-based services will shift to screen and app-based formats. Purchase buttons will be seen everywhere on screens, linking everything to buying. Companies must create digital departments and strengthen cooperation with platforms. As corporate activities, products, and services become more digitalized, cooperation to gain synergy through digital linkage with other companies will increase. The era of a lifestyle connected entirely online will come sooner. The more digitalized it becomes, the more personalized services will be refined.

Changed Natural Environment Due to the Pandemic Raises Interest in Renewable Energy

If digitalization is an unavoidable trend, the point that determines competitive advantage will be artificial intelligence. Since AlphaGo, the remarkable abilities of AI have been proven, but practical applications were disappointing due to a lack of cases. However, the pandemic has increased expectations and demand for AI. AI was the first to warn about the COVID-19 outbreak, and vaccine and treatment development were shortened with AI's help. More companies will adopt intelligent systems that analyze vast data and support decision-making to improve efficiency and competitiveness. Additionally, AI autonomous vehicles will begin road operations, the writing program GPT-3 will handle customer consultations, and deepfake technology capable of producing sophisticated fake images and videos will be used as next-generation media production tools.

The pandemic made humanity seriously acknowledge the risks of climate change. In a way, the pandemic may have been self-inflicted. As wildlife habitats are increasingly destroyed, zoonotic viruses have made humans their hosts. The pandemic made us realize that scientists' warnings about the climate crisis are not mere warnings but realities. During pandemic lockdowns, nature showed rapid recovery ability, and we learned that reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires enormous economic costs. Increased interest in eco-friendly consumption by companies and consumers, and the rapid growth of the electric vehicle industry, are positive signs. Pressure to transition to a low-carbon economy to prevent greater suffering will increase. AI will also be an essential tool to enhance precision in production processes, save resources, and facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy.

The post-COVID-19 year zero, 2021, will be a year to deeply realize the importance of digital, AI, and low carbon. Hoping no disruptive shocks occur, I forecast the new year.

Myungho Lee, Planning Committee Member, Yeo Si Jae

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.