Aggressive An... Calculations Must Be Busy

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporters Kang Nahum and Im Chunhan] The political sphere is busy trying to find a winning formula for the Seoul mayoral by-election amid Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People Power Party, dominating the approval ratings. The opposition is focused on resolving the unification variable, while the ruling party is deeply concerned with devising a strategy to boost voter turnout.

According to an Ipsos survey commissioned by SBS conducted from the 31st of last month to the 1st, among 801 Seoul residents aged 18 and over, Ahn led with 24.1% preference as the Seoul mayoral candidate. Following him were Park Young-sun, Minister of SMEs and Startups, with 15.3%, former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 9.5%, Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae at 6.8%, and former lawmaker Na Kyung-won at 6.3%.

In a 'Seoul Political Issues Public Opinion Survey' conducted by Realmeter on the 28th and 29th of last month for 800 Seoul citizens aged 18 and over, commissioned by Newsis, Ahn also led with 26.2% in suitability ratings among candidates from both ruling and opposition parties.

Ahn has consecutively ranked first in various polls, benefiting from the effect of his proactive declaration of candidacy. As Ahn’s dominance solidifies, the arithmetic within the People Power Party regarding opposition unification becomes increasingly complex.

The opposition currently agrees on candidate unification but has yet to find common ground on the method. The People Power Party demands Ahn’s party membership, but the People’s Party draws a clear line. Within the People Power Party, diverse opinions such as a conservative opposition unified primary and a 'Mr. Trot' style competition have surfaced. Previously, the People Power Party’s primary preparation committee proposed a plan to narrow down four candidates through 100% public opinion polling and select the final candidate by reflecting 20% party member votes and 80% public opinion in the main primary.

For now, emphasis is placed on a '100% citizen primary.' This is a means to include external figures like Ahn and former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop in the primary. Former People Power Party lawmaker Na Kyung-won said on YTN radio that day, "With Ahn’s candidacy, I worry whether unification can be properly achieved until the end," adding, "I think he would find it disadvantageous if the election includes our party members, so I believe a 100% citizen primary is necessary." Regarding the primary process, she said, "We cannot just wait indefinitely for Ahn. It is right for our party to proceed according to party rules."

In this regard, Ahn told reporters after the Supreme Council meeting at the National Assembly on the 4th, "I said we should discuss the primary method with an open mind, and I also proposed that Seoul mayoral candidates first compete on vision and policy," leaving multiple possibilities open.

Meanwhile, the ruling party cannot help but envy the opposition’s competitive landscape. So far, only lawmaker Woo Sang-ho has declared his candidacy for the Seoul mayoral by-election, while other potential candidates are hesitating, showing little sign of generating excitement.

Moreover, with the party’s approval ratings and those of potential candidates declining, there is a growing sentiment that the currently mentioned candidates are insufficient. The card of former Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon is also being discussed for 'broadening the base.' In fact, the Democratic Party revised its party constitution and regulations last month to allow anyone who joins the party to run for public office. This is analyzed as a measure keeping a 'third candidate' in mind.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.