[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Preparations Begin for North Korea's Military Parade After Typhoon Passes

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] After Typhoon No. 10 'Haishen' leaves the Korean Peninsula, North Korea is expected to begin full-scale preparations for a large-scale military parade commemorating the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party. North Korea's large-scale military parade is interpreted as a means to strengthen internal unity among the people who have suffered from the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) and repeated typhoon-induced flooding, as well as to exert military deterrence and pressure externally ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November.

On the 7th, an intelligence official said, "North Korea temporarily suspended preparations for the Workers' Party 75th anniversary event scheduled for the 10th of next month due to consecutive typhoons landing on the Korean Peninsula, but preparations are expected to resume within this week once Typhoon 'Haishen' leaves the peninsula."

Until last month, North Korea was observed preparing for the large-scale military parade by constructing equipment storage buildings at Mirim Airfield east of Pyongyang and refurbishing Kim Il-sung Square. The approximately 100 equipment storage buildings are believed to be temporary storage facilities for large equipment such as ballistic missile transporter erector launchers (TELs) and tanks.

This year's Workers' Party founding anniversary is important from North Korea's perspective because it is a significant milestone year (a 5th or 10th anniversary). In 2010, on the 65th anniversary of the party's founding, North Korea held a large-scale military parade and unveiled the mobile intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) 'Musudan.' In 2015, marking the 70th anniversary, it showcased the improved intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) 'KN-08' for the first time. The weapons North Korea reveals on this 75th anniversary will likely indicate the future level of pressure it intends to exert on the U.S.

U.S. experts predict that North Korea may test-launch a medium-range submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) or unveil a new ICBM capable of striking the U.S. mainland. SLBM launches are among the provocations that South Korea and the U.S. have been closely monitoring ahead of the November U.S. presidential election.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report on the 4th (local time) on the North Korea-focused site 'Beyond Parallel,' analyzing satellite images of North Korea's Sinpo Shipyard. CSIS noted, "The presence of not one but two Romeo-class submarines docked inside the bay at the Mayangdo submarine base is another sign pointing to the possibility of an SLBM test launch," adding, "This could hint at an 'October surprise' event ahead of the November election."

There is also a possibility that North Korea will unveil new strategic weapons, including solid-fuel ICBMs and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) ICBMs capable of simultaneously targeting Washington and New York. Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, predicted at the end of last year’s Workers' Party plenary meeting that "we will soon witness new strategic weapons." The recent rapid rise in status of Ri Pyong-chol, Vice Chairman of the Party Central Military Commission responsible for strategic weapons development, supports this analysis.

The U.S. appears to be closely monitoring North Korea's military parade-related developments and managing the situation. The U.S. Air Force's test launch of the Minuteman-3 ICBM on the 3rd is interpreted as an indirect warning. During the launch, the Minuteman-3 flew 4,200 miles (6,759 km) to the Pacific Marshall Islands area. The U.S. Department of Defense also announced plans to deploy new interceptor missiles to counter North Korea's ICBMs.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.