'Social Chaos Inevitable if Social Distancing Raised to Level 3 + Major Holiday Travel Combine'

Now Is the Golden Time to Put Out the 'Keun Bul'
Why Extend the 2.5-Level Social Distancing?

[Asia Economy reporters Choi Dae-yeol and Kim Heung-soon] The government's decision to extend the Level 2.5 social distancing measures by one week stems from the urgent need to extinguish the 'big fire' of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The daily new COVID-19 cases considered manageable by health authorities are around 100. There are 238 epidemiological investigators, including those in local governments, who trace and isolate contacts of confirmed patients to prevent further transmission. When new cases exceed 100, this capacity is overwhelmed, causing delays in tracing and management.

Considering the healthcare system as well, the manageable number of daily confirmed cases drops to about 50. Exceeding this number makes timely and appropriate treatment difficult. This figure assumes normal circumstances; if variables arise such as cluster infections in hospitals or nursing facilities with elderly or patients with underlying conditions, response becomes much more challenging.

On the 3rd, disinfection work to prevent COVID-19 is being carried out at the National Assembly plenary session hall in Yeouido, Seoul.<이미지:Yonhap News>

Manageable New Cases Are Around 100 Per Day
Cases Decreased Compared to Last Week but Still at Risk Level

The government extended the enhanced social distancing measures, known as Level 2.5, in the Seoul metropolitan area, originally scheduled until the 6th, because the recent situation is still considered dangerous. Compared to daily new cases of 300 to 400 a week ago, the current level of around 200 cases indicates a slowdown in the spread, but it is still deemed high given current quarantine capabilities.

One of the indicators for Level 3 social distancing is daily new cases exceeding 100 to 200. In terms of new cases alone, the situation has been at Level 3 for several weeks. There are still 30 to 40 groups where additional cases may emerge, and about one in four patients cannot be linked to known infection chains, indicating that related indicators remain poor.

Although there are some differences between levels, the effects of social distancing measures typically appear with a lag of one to two weeks, making it difficult for health authorities to make premature judgments. Currently, the effects of Level 2 social distancing, implemented since the end of last month, are gradually becoming apparent, and the effects of Level 2.5 are expected to be seen only after next week. At this point, the country is in the process of curbing the 'silent spread' that has permeated various parts of society around late last month.

Kwon Jun-wook, Deputy Director of the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said, "Respiratory infectious diseases tend to take longer to decrease than to increase in patient numbers, so patience is necessary," adding, "It is not yet a situation to be relieved, and now is the process of correcting a shaky tower, so we must maintain vigilance and alertness as it can collapse again at any time."

Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun is delivering opening remarks at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters meeting on COVID-19 held at the Government Seoul Office in Jongno-gu, Seoul, on the 4th. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

Possibility of Resurgence During Chuseok Holiday
If Level 3 Is Raised Around the Holiday, It Could Cause Great Chaos

Since nationwide movement and travel are likely to increase around the end of this month during the Chuseok holiday, it is necessary to suppress sporadic cluster outbreaks or epidemics as much as possible before then. If the epidemic spreads again and Level 3 is raised, private gatherings and events such as family meetings will be limited to fewer than 10 people. If this measure coincides with the holiday, society as a whole will inevitably experience severe chaos. Level 3 involves enforcement measures, raising concerns about massive administrative waste and fairness disputes.

Although the economic damage to small business owners and self-employed individuals has worsened due to the Level 2.5 measures that have lasted for several months, there is also concern that easing restrictions at this stage could be interpreted as a signal to relax social distancing. The government originally planned to decide on extending Level 2.5 around the 6th, after assessing the epidemic trend by this weekend.

Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun said on the day, "I am very sorry for the difficulties faced by the common people and the inconveniences in daily life," but added, "We must tighten the reins now and enter a definite downward trend to avoid greater suffering."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.