Whoever Becomes Japan's Prime Minister, the 'Transitional Cabinet' Has Limits... Where Are Korea-Japan Relations Headed?

Burden of Proposing Foreign Policy Contrasting with Prime Minister Abe... Likely to Remain at Management Level
Low Possibility of Dramatic Change in Korea-Japan Relations
Expectations for Suga Minister's Pro-Korean Faction and Relations... Japanese Public Prefers Ishiba Most

From the left, Taro Kono, Minister of Defense; Fumio Kishida, former Minister of Foreign Affairs; Yoshihide Suga, Chief Cabinet Secretary; Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporters Lim Cheol-young, Naju-seok, Lee Hyun-woo] With the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, attention is focused on whether the deteriorating Korea-Japan relations can enter a new phase in the 'post-Abe' era.

However, according to a synthesis of analyses by Japan-related experts, the general view is that the possibility of dramatic change is low regardless of who becomes the next prime minister.

Experts point out that it is difficult to prematurely expect a recovery in Korea-Japan relations as mutual retaliatory measures have followed one another, including Japan's unilateral export restrictions after the South Korean Supreme Court's compensation ruling for victims of forced labor during Japanese colonial rule, and the issue of terminating the Korea-Japan military information protection agreement (GSOMIA) during Abe's administration.

Furthermore, since the successor prime minister's term is only about one year, it is difficult to expect changes in foreign policy, and thus it is also unlikely that support for the Korean government's accelerated Korean Peninsula peace process will be forthcoming.

The figures mentioned as possible successors to Prime Minister Abe include Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Fumio Kishida, Defense Minister Taro Kono, and former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba.

A diplomatic source said, "Whoever becomes the next prime minister is likely to focus on domestic affairs to resolve internal issues rather than foreign policy," adding, "Rather than proposing foreign policies that contrast with Abe's, the transitional cabinet will likely manage Korea-Japan relations based on the U.S.-Japan alliance."

This trend emphasizes the low likelihood that Japan's next prime minister will show a dramatic change in attitude. Due to the strong nature of a 'transitional cabinet' lasting only about a year, the Japanese government is expected to focus on managing Korea-Japan relations.

Amid the low possibility of dramatic changes in Korea-Japan relations, issues such as the cashing out of assets of Japanese companies involved in forced labor during the colonial period, the withdrawal of export restrictions, and the termination of GSOMIA remain pressing.

The South Korean courts have already begun compulsory execution procedures for compensation assets, and the Abe administration has warned of additional retaliatory measures. GSOMIA, which the South Korean government has postponed terminating, has been stalled since November last year.

Professor Jeong Dae-jin of Ajou University said, "Considering the support base within the LDP, the next prime minister is very unlikely to change foreign policy," adding, "They will continue diplomacy aligned with the U.S. based on the U.S.-Japan alliance and focus on a management cabinet, making a turnaround in Korea-Japan relations difficult to expect."

However, there is also an analysis that if Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga becomes the next prime minister, Korea-Japan relations could differ significantly from the current strained atmosphere. This is based on the fact that Suga is known to be close to LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai, who is pro-Korea, and also has a close relationship with former Secretary-General Ishiba.

Professor Hosaka Yuji of Sejong University's College of Liberal Arts explained, "Suga is widely supported not only within the LDP but also in the coalition Komeito party, so there is already a strong tendency in Japan to see him as the next prime minister. The probability of him becoming prime minister is seen as over 90%," adding, "He is unlikely to pursue irrational anti-Korean policies or push forward hardline foreign policies as during the Abe administration."

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Nihon Keizai Shimbun and TV Tokyo on the 29th and 30th following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation announcement, the most suitable candidate for the next prime minister was former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba (28%). Defense Minister Taro Kono followed with 15% support, ranking second. Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi was third with 14%. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga ranked fourth with 11%, and Policy Research Council Chairman Fumio Kishida was fifth with 6%. When the survey was narrowed to LDP supporters and asked who was the most suitable candidate for prime minister, Ishiba remained first with 28%, and Kono second with 18%. Suga ranked third with 16%, Koizumi fourth with 13%, and Kishida fifth with 9%.

Both Ishiba and Kono also received support from opposition party supporters, with 42% and 22% respectively. Among respondents prioritizing 'economic policy' as the desired policy from the next prime minister, Ishiba was ranked first with 30%. Among those prioritizing 'diplomatic security,' Ishiba also led with 26%. Among those prioritizing 'constitutional revision,' Kono ranked first with 32%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.