Abe's Sudden Resignation Triggers Emergency Situation... 'Post-Abe' Quick Steps

Shigeru Ishiba, Fumio Kishida, and Yoshihide Suga Three-Way Race
LDP Leadership Election to Be Decided Next Month
Future Political Landscape Uncertain Regardless of Winner

▲Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe abruptly announced his resignation on the 28th due to health issues, plunging Japan's political scene into turmoil. Movements among various candidates for the next Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election, the so-called 'post-Abe' era, are accelerating.

On the 28th, Prime Minister Abe visited the LDP headquarters in Tokyo to announce his resignation, prompting the party to begin the schedule for electing the next party leader. Japan operates under a parliamentary cabinet system, where the leader of the party holding the majority in the House of Representatives becomes the new prime minister. The new prime minister's term will last from the time of election until the end of Abe's remaining term in September next year.

The leading candidates for the 'post-Abe' position include former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Fumio Kishida, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga.

Among them, the most prominent candidate is former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba. He has the highest approval ratings in major public opinion polls. However, despite his popularity among the public, his influence within the party is considered weak, which is seen as a limitation. Moreover, having faced off against Prime Minister Abe twice in past LDP leadership elections, Abe's strong opposition to Ishiba acts as an obstacle. According to LDP insiders, Ishiba is regarded as Abe's political rival, and Abe reportedly refuses to concede the successor position to Ishiba. Because of this, Ishiba has recently been strengthening his alliances by meeting with figures such as Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai. Additionally, on the 18th, he was reported to have met with Hiroshi Moriyama, LDP Diet Affairs Committee Chairman, to discuss strategies. To become prime minister, expanding support among LDP lawmakers is necessary.

Another strong candidate for prime minister is LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Fumio Kishida. Kishida was initially selected by Prime Minister Abe as his successor. Known for his high affinity and flexible personality, he is widely regarded as suitable for future Japan-South Korea relations. However, his low public approval rating is seen as a limitation. Recently, seemingly aware of this, he has made efforts to boost his public support by showing a down-to-earth image, such as shopping for groceries after work and cooking dinner with his son, which was broadcasted to the public.

▲From the left, Taro Kono, Minister of Defense; Yoshihide Suga, Chief Cabinet Secretary; Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party; Fumio Kishida, former Minister of Foreign Affairs [Image source=Yonhap News]

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has also recently emerged as a rising 'post-Abe' candidate. Since Abe's return to power in December 2012, Suga has maintained his position as Chief Cabinet Secretary. This role is akin to South Korea's Chief of Staff and Prime Minister, making him the de facto second-in-command in Abe's cabinet. Despite the spread of COVID-19, Suga's recognition surged as he pushed forward the 'Go To Travel' campaign aimed at revitalizing tourism. Analysts suggest that Suga's prominent role allowed the health-deteriorated Abe to step down naturally.

Suga strongly denies being a 'post-Abe' candidate, stating, "I don't even dare to think about the prime minister position," distancing himself from the speculation. Nevertheless, major media outlets continue to list him as a leading candidate.

If Suga becomes Abe's successor, his ability to maintain stability without a regime change during the emergency situation caused by COVID-19 is considered a strong advantage.

Defense Minister Taro Kono has also emerged as a notable figure. In a recent Yomiuri Shimbun poll on potential next prime ministers, he rose to the 10% range. Recently, he has made strong statements regarding security issues surrounding the Senkaku Islands (known as Diaoyu Islands in China), asserting his presence. His father, Yohei Kono, former Chief Cabinet Secretary, was a key figure behind the 'Kono Statement' (1993), which acknowledged the military's coercion in the issue of comfort women and expressed apologies to the victims. However, unlike his father, Defense Minister Kono took a tough stance on the forced labor compensation rulings during his tenure as Foreign Minister.

With only about a year left in Abe's term, political maneuvers to shape the future government have intensified. Japanese media predict that the LDP leadership election will be held next month. Once a new leader is elected, the current cabinet will resign.

The LDP leadership election is limited to party members. Internal opinions have yet to converge on the election method, but it is reported that the General Council will decide the method on September 1.

Regardless of who becomes prime minister, the outlook for the political landscape is challenging. Abe's economic policy, Abenomics, which supported the LDP, has been severely shaken by the COVID-19 crisis, and rising youth unemployment has led to the loss of support among young voters, a key constituency. Furthermore, the Tokyo Olympics, postponed to next year, face uncertainty regarding their normal hosting. Diplomatic issues with Russia, North Korea, and China also remain pressing challenges.

The dissolution of the House of Representatives by October next year is another significant task for the new leader. The prime minister can decide the timing of the dissolution, and the election results will determine the prime minister's control within the party.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.