What is the North Korea message from Biden, who proposed the guidelines?

Choe Son-hui Issues Statement, Effectively Refusing Surface-Level Talks... Closely Monitoring Situation Changes
Beigun's 'Empty-Handed Visit' Expected, But Reversal Possible

Steve Biegun, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy at the Department of State, visited the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building in Jongno-gu, Seoul on the 16th and shook hands with Lee Do-hoon, Director General for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Photo by Moon Ho-nam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Cheol-young] As Choe Son-hui, North Korea's First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, presented a 'guideline' through a statement, attention is focused on the message to North Korea that Stephen Biegun, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and Special Representative for North Korea (photo), will deliver during his visit to South Korea this week.

According to multiple government officials on the 6th, Deputy Secretary Biegun is scheduled to carry out his itinerary in South Korea from the 7th to the 9th for three days before departing for Japan. This visit marks Biegun's first trip to South Korea in seven months since December last year, and Allison Hooker, Senior Director for Asia at the White House National Security Council (NSC), is also expected to accompany him this time.

Biegun and his delegation are expected to meet with Lee Do-hoon, Director-General for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to discuss the situation on the Korean Peninsula and hold introductory meetings with the recently reorganized diplomatic and security teams of the Blue House and the government.

On the 3rd, the Blue House nominated Lee In-young, a four-term former floor leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, as the new Minister of Unification, and appointed Suh Hoon, Director of the National Intelligence Service, as the successor to National Security Office Director Chung Eui-yong. Park Ji-won, a four-term former lawmaker and distinguished professor at Dankook University, was nominated as the new head of the National Intelligence Service.

The main focus is on Deputy Secretary Biegun's message to North Korea and North Korea's response. Some speculate that the U.S. might attempt contact with the North through meetings at Panmunjom, similar to the visit in December last year. The U.S. needs to manage the situation on the Korean Peninsula before the November presidential election, and South Korea is in urgent need of momentum to shift the atmosphere toward resuming trilateral talks among South Korea, North Korea, and the U.S.

Previously, John Bolton, former White House NSC advisor, mentioned the possibility of resuming North Korea-U.S. summits and claimed that an 'October surprise' might materialize. Robert O'Brien, NSC advisor, also emphasized that "the door to dialogue and progress (with North Korea) remains open" and stated that "an October surprise is not impossible," raising expectations for the resumption of talks.

Opinions are divided. While the dominant analysis suggests that Biegun's visit will end as a 'fruitless visit' similar to December last year without noticeable gains, there are also views that a dramatic turnaround for resuming dialogue remains possible.

Professor Jung Dae-jin of Ajou University explained, "Unless there is a fundamental change in the positions of both North Korea and the U.S. or other variables, the visit will likely follow a similar pattern to the December visit last year," adding, "Efforts will be made to ease the crisis during the suspension period of the South Korea military action plan and to prevent North Korea from engaging in strategic provocations against the U.S."

In the short term, he predicted that the cancellation, reduction, or postponement of the August South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises might be offered as a card. Professor Jung analyzed, "They may attempt dialogue with North Korea by leveraging the joint exercises or propose measures to prevent the crisis from worsening," adding, "This could serve as a medium to shift from a phase of actions and provocations to a dialogue phase, which would also provide North Korea with some justification for dialogue."

North Korea has, for now, outwardly taken a stance of rejecting dialogue. Choe, who is responsible for the U.S. line, stated in a statement released by the Korean Central News Agency on the 4th, "At such a sensitive time, it is astonishing that rumors of a summit between the heads of state, ignoring the reality of U.S.-DPRK relations, are being publicized," dismissing the 'October surprise' speculated within the U.S. as fantasy.

However, by refraining from provocative criticism of the U.S. and issuing the statement just before Biegun's visit, it is interpreted that the North is also closely monitoring the situation and changes indirectly.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.