New Confirmed Cases 'Ultra Low Then High'... Second Major Wave Pattern Solidified

Increasing Trend from Monday to Saturday
Situation Likely to Worsen During Vacation Season

[Asia Economy Reporter Cho Hyun-ui] The so-called 'very low early, very high late' phenomenon, where the number of new COVID-19 infections is low at the beginning of the week but increases toward the end, is becoming more pronounced. Although the number of tests decreases on weekends, outdoor activities on Saturdays and Sundays lead to increased contact, resulting in a repeated pattern of many new infections appearing during both weekdays and weekends.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 29th, the daily average number of confirmed cases over the past three weeks was 44.8, approaching the threshold of 'fewer than 50 new cases,' which is one of the criteria for the social distancing system.

◆New cases increase as the week progresses = The daily number of new cases is below average on Mondays and Tuesdays but rises to the 40s from Wednesday onward, exceeding the average. The daily average number of confirmed cases by day of the week is lowest on Monday at 30.7, followed by Tuesday (39.3), Thursday (44), Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday (48), and Saturday (55.7). On weekends, especially Saturday and Sunday, the number of tests conducted is lower, and since it usually takes about a day for test results to come out after sample collection, the number of new confirmed cases tends to decrease from Monday to Tuesday compared to other days.

The trend of low cases early in the week and increasing during weekdays and weekends contrasts with the situation at the end of April, just before the cluster infection from the Itaewon clubs. At that time, the daily new confirmed cases were in single digits, leading some to suggest that the outbreak was effectively over. Looking at the confirmed cases in the last week of April, after recording 10 on Monday the 27th, the numbers decreased during the week: 14 → 9 → 4 → 9 → 6 → 13.

The health authorities consider the cluster outbreaks in the metropolitan area and Daejeon as a second wave. Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said, "The second wave was triggered during the May holidays and is ongoing," adding, "As indoor temperatures are maintained appropriately through air conditioning, close contact between people occurs, and since this is a novel infectious disease with no immunity in the population, COVID-19 will not weaken at all during the summer."

On the 25th, when Lotte Shopping started offline sales for the duty-free luxury goods event, citizens hoping to make purchases lined up in front of Lotte Department Store in Nowon-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

◆Effectively a second wave... Increased risk due to relaxed distancing = The problem is that with the summer vacation season approaching and social distancing measures loosening, the risk of a second wave is even higher. In fact, the Ministry of Health and Welfare's Central Accident Response Headquarters analyzed the movement of residents in the metropolitan area using mobile phone data, card sales, and public transportation usage after the enhanced metropolitan area quarantine measures on April 29. The analysis showed that during the fourth weekend after the measures (May 20-21), resident movement in the metropolitan area increased by 1.1% compared to the previous weekend (May 13-14). This level is about 99% of the movement during the weekend before the quarantine measures (May 23-24), effectively returning to the level from a month ago.

This leads to an increase in daily confirmed cases. As of midnight on that day, the number of new confirmed cases was 42, approximately 37% higher than the Monday average of the past three weeks (30.7).

The government has also taken stricter measures on social distancing again. To prevent the spread in tourist areas during the vacation season, they are discussing extending the concentrated vacation period from July and August to September and have also started promoting a two-shift lunch system.

Minister of Health and Welfare Park Neung-hoo said at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters meeting, "Last year, 70% of private-sector workers took their vacations between late July and early August," adding, "If many people concentrate in vacation spots during a short period, the risk of spread increases." He urged, "Employers and managers should cooperate by allowing employees to take vacations freely even during off-peak seasons and by implementing a two-shift lunch system to reduce crowding during meals."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.