[Yang Nak-gyu's Defense Club] Today Marks the 21st Anniversary of the First Battle of Yeonpyeong... Is the NLL Safe?

Photo from the Yeonpyeong Naval Battle

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] On the 15th, marking the 21st anniversary of the First Battle of Yeonpyeong, concerns are rising over the possibility of North Korea's military provocations around the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea, known as the "powder keg of the Korean Peninsula." Especially since this day also marks the 20th anniversary of the June 15th North-South Joint Declaration, North Korea may emphasize the symbolism of "breaking off inter-Korean relations."

The Blue House convened a National Security Council (NSC) Standing Committee meeting shortly after midnight on the 14th. The attendance of Park Han-ki, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who is not a regular member of the NSC, is also interpreted as reflecting the possibility of military conflict.

The military authorities are most concerned about military provocations along the West Sea NLL. This is because the number of fishing vessels from both South and North Korea has significantly increased due to the crab fishing season this month. If a clash occurs between the two Koreas, the situation could resemble that of 21 years ago today. On June 15, 1999, at 7:55 a.m., two North Korean 80-ton patrol boats crossed the NLL, followed by two 420-ton patrol boats aiming their guns at South Korean vessels, escorted by three torpedo boats, invading South Korean territorial waters. The South Korean Navy dispatched eight high-speed boats and two 1,200-ton patrol ships, conducting a push-back collision operation. North Korea immediately counterattacked. About ten soldiers on the North Korean torpedo boats fired preemptive shots with 25mm machine guns from the deck. The South Korean Navy responded with 40mm Vulcan guns. At that time, Defense Minister Cho Sung-tae convened a meeting of all military commanders just one month after his appointment and deployed 105mm self-propelled guns to the West Sea Five Islands region, which had been postponed due to concerns about provoking North Korea.

North Korea may also effectively nullify the measures it had implemented under the September 19 Military Agreement. Since November 2018, both Koreas agreed to halt artillery firing drills within 5 km of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) and to suspend artillery firing and naval maneuvering drills in the waters around the NLL. However, North Korea is likely to provoke by redeploying coastal artillery and conducting firing drills. In fact, last November, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un observed coastal artillery firing on Changrin Island in the buffer zone of the West Sea.

Kim Yo-jong, First Deputy Director, mentioned the "blowing up of the inter-Korean liaison office," raising the possibility of closing the Kaesong Industrial Complex. If the Kaesong Industrial Complex is shut down, North Korea could militarize the area again. In 2016, when the South Korean government suspended operations at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, North Korea deployed armed guards with rifles throughout the complex.

North Korea uses the Kaesong Industrial Complex area as a top priority invasion route in case of emergency. During the Korean War, the 6th Division mobile unit stationed north of Kaesong occupied Kaesong and Ongjin areas and rapidly advanced to Yeongdeungpo. Kaesong is a military strategic point that allows the shortest time breakthrough to Seoul. The North Korean military was also reportedly opposed to handing over Kaesong, a military strategic point, to the South when the Kaesong Industrial Complex issue was raised in 1999.

If North Korea redeploys troops to the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the units stationed in Kaesong and Bongdong-ri, Panmun-eup, are likely to be the 6th Division, 64th Division, and 62nd Artillery Brigade of the 2nd Corps. These units were stationed in the Kaesong area before the Kaesong Industrial Complex construction began in December 2003 but were relocated north of Songaksan and to Kaepung County after the complex started operations. The main tank of the 6th Division is the 'Chunma-ho,' and the 62nd Artillery Brigade is armed with 170mm self-propelled guns and 240mm multiple rocket launchers. Considering their range of 54 to 65 km, they have the capability to directly strike Seoul.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.