Trump Faces Defeat in November Election... Economic Impact from COVID-19 Aftermath

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] Due to the economic impact caused by the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), including a sharp rise in the unemployment rate, there is a forecast that U.S. President Donald Trump could suffer a historic defeat in the upcoming November presidential election.

According to CNN Business in the U.S. on the 20th (local time), the British economic analysis firm Oxford Economics predicted, using its own election result forecasting method, that President Trump's voter share would be only 35%. Before the COVID-19 crisis, it was expected that President Trump would receive 55% of the vote, but due to the upcoming economic recession, it is forecasted that he will face a "historic defeat."

Oxford Economics predicted the election assuming that the U.S. unemployment rate would exceed 13% just before the election and that per capita income would decrease by about 6%. Oxford Economics stated, "Economic issues will be an insurmountable obstacle for President Trump in the November election." Their forecasting method has accurately predicted U.S. presidential election voter results since 1948, except for two occasions in 1968 and 1976.

In particular, President Trump is analyzed to lose the competition for electoral votes by 210 to 328. Especially in battleground states such as Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina, he is expected to lose electoral votes.

However, some argue that it is difficult to apply existing prediction models as they are in the crisis situation caused by COVID-19. With about six months left until the election, it is not a normal period to apply traditional models. In fact, Oxford Economics also explained that there may be some limitations.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.