[Politics, That Day...] 'Presidential Election D-1 Month' 3%P Neck-and-Neck, Moon Jae-in - Ahn Cheol-soo's Fateful Turning Point

2017 April Week 1 Korea Gallup Poll, Moon Jae-in 38% vs Ahn Cheol-soo 35%... Ahn Cheol-soo's Support Rate Plummets After Kindergarten Controversy

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] ‘Politics, On That Day…’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, or figures.

When revisiting political history, there are times when memory and reality do not align. The May 9, 2017 presidential election is one such case. Many remember it as an election where Moon Jae-in, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, had a one-sidedly favorable flow. However, the 2017 presidential election was one of the most dramatic contests ever staged.

Just one month before the election, a particular candidate experienced a vertical surge in approval ratings. The protagonist who rose to just behind Moon Jae-in was Ahn Cheol-soo, the People’s Party presidential candidate.

In a public opinion poll conducted by Gallup Korea from April 4 to 6, 2017, targeting 1,005 men and women aged 19 and older nationwide, Ahn Cheol-soo received 35% support, trailing Moon Jae-in’s 38% by only 3 percentage points.

Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party polled at 7%, Yoo Seung-min of the Bareun Party at 4%, and Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party at 3%. Compared to the fifth week of March, Ahn Cheol-soo’s support surged by 16 percentage points. Moon Jae-in also rose by 7 percentage points, but Ahn Cheol-soo’s rise was truly rapid and fierce.

Ahn Cheol-soo, presidential candidate of the People’s Party (left), Moon Jae-in, presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea (right) / Photo by Asia Economy DB

In Gallup Korea’s first week of April poll in the Seoul area, Ahn Cheol-soo led Moon Jae-in within the margin of error. Ahn Cheol-soo was surveyed at 39%, while Moon Jae-in was at 35%.

Ahn Cheol-soo’s momentum continued in Gallup Korea’s second week of April poll (April 11?13, 2017). Gallup Korea surveyed 1,010 men and women aged 19 and older nationwide, and Ahn Cheol-soo received 37% support, maintaining a 3 percentage point gap behind Moon Jae-in’s 40%.

With less than a month left until the presidential election, an ultra-close race was underway. On April 12, Ahn Cheol-soo declared, “I am determined to devote everything to save our country.” After officially registering as a presidential candidate on April 15, he declared he would resign from his parliamentary seat, making a last stand.

Ahn Cheol-soo might have dreamed of being the protagonist of a dramatic comeback. However, much changed after his so-called kindergarten remarks. On April 11, at the ‘2017 Private Kindergarten Early Childhood Educators Conference,’ Ahn Cheol-soo said, “Regarding the kindergarten curriculum, the establishment of large-scale single kindergartens should be restrained…”

(Photo from left) Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party of Korea, Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party, Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party, Yoo Seung-min of the Bareun Party, Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party presidential election candidates

On the day Ahn Cheol-soo’s remarks were made, they were not the focus of attention. However, controversy spread mainly through internet communities composed of parents raising children. Ahn Cheol-soo’s remarks were criticized as being out of touch with the perceptions of parents who prefer public kindergartens. Although the Ahn Cheol-soo presidential campaign issued explanatory materials, the controversy did not easily subside. On April 12, Ahn Cheol-soo emphasized the importance of ‘public education for kindergartens,’ but questions about him continued.

The fact that Ahn Cheol-soo made the controversial kindergarten remarks in front of private kindergarten stakeholders also fueled the controversy. After Ahn Cheol-soo’s kindergarten remarks were amplified, changes in public sentiment were confirmed in Gallup Korea’s subsequent polls.

Gallup Korea conducted a poll from April 18 to 20, 2017, targeting 1,004 men and women aged 19 and older nationwide. Moon Jae-in was surveyed at 41%, while Ahn Cheol-soo dropped to 30%. Ahn Cheol-soo’s support fell by 7 percentage points compared to the second week of April poll. For detailed Gallup Korea poll information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

What further complicated Ahn Cheol-soo’s political steps was the TV debate on April 23, 2017. At the presidential candidate invitation debate hosted by the Central Election Broadcasting Debate Commission at the KBS studio, Ahn Cheol-soo asked Moon Jae-in, “Am I Gap Cheol-soo or Ahn Cheol-soo?”

Ahn Cheol-soo also asked, “Am I MB’s avatar?” Hong Joon-pyo, who participated in the TV debate, harshly criticized, saying, “I don’t know if this is an elementary school emotional fight or a presidential candidate debate.”

Ahn Cheol-soo was greatly shaken by the overlapping controversies of the kindergarten remarks and the ‘MB avatar’ and ‘Gap Cheol-soo’ remarks. After the TV debate, the two-party race between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo collapsed, shifting to Moon Jae-in’s dominant lead.

Would the results have been different if the kindergarten remarks had not occurred in the last presidential election? Some focus on the so-called illusion of public opinion polls. There is talk that it is necessary to revisit Gallup Korea’s first week of April poll, which showed an ultra-close race between Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in.

At that time, Hong Joon-pyo’s support was surveyed at 7%, but questions were raised about the poll figures. It means that once the official presidential election campaign started and the Liberty Korea Party’s nationwide organization was fully mobilized, Hong Joon-pyo’s support was bound to rise.

One month before the election, Ahn Cheol-soo’s support threatened Moon Jae-in by adding not only his personal support and the People’s Party’s support but also the votes of Liberty Korea Party-leaning voters. But did the analysis that the actual voting results would differ from this hold true?

In the May 9, 2017 presidential election, Moon Jae-in was elected with 41.08% of the vote. Ahn Cheol-soo, who threatened Moon Jae-in until a month before the election, finished third with 21.41%. The second place went to Hong Joon-pyo, who received 24.03%. The pre-election poll results a month before and the actual vote count were very different. Moon Jae-in comfortably secured first place in the actual vote, leaving us with the memory that the last presidential election was a ‘lackluster game.’

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.