EIU: "North Korea's Diplomatic Line to Harden Further Due to COVID-19"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] An analysis has emerged suggesting that North Korea, whose economic collapse has deepened due to the impact of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), is likely to adopt a more hardline diplomatic stance going forward. It is expected to display more defiant and aggressive diplomacy to avoid showing vulnerability to the outside world.

On the 29th (local time), the British economic analysis agency Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecasted in a report that North Korea may exhibit a more aggressive diplomatic tendency due to the worsening economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 impact. The EIU stated, "North Korean elites are highly likely to take a more defiant and aggressive diplomatic stance to avoid showing vulnerability to the outside world," adding, "This mentality underlies North Korea's recent resumption of short-range missile launches." It further evaluated, "The impact of COVID-19 has sharply reduced the likelihood of North Korea engaging in diplomatic relations with the United States this year."

The EIU pointed out that after the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, North Korea began border closures from the end of January, which significantly affected trade with China and Russia. Following the border closure, activities of ships used for smuggling goods also decreased. The EIU analyzed, "COVID-19 halted North Korea's maritime transport, which had not been stopped even by international sanctions." It added, "Due to import restrictions, shortages of fertilizer and agricultural tools have occurred, and large-scale quarantine measures within North Korea may have disrupted spring planting operations," forecasting, "North Korea's agricultural production will decline this year."

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), North Korea's real GDP growth rates were -3.5% and -4.2% in 2017 and 2018 respectively, continuing to contract, and last year's growth rate was only 1.8%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.