Competition for Next Party Leadership Intensifies with Focus on 'First-Term Lawmakers'... Attention on 'Former Blue House Officials' and 'Lee Nak-yeon Faction'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Wondara] Attention is focused on first-term lawmakers ahead of the formation of the 21st National Assembly. Since first-term winners accounted for half of the 21st National Assembly election, with 151 members (51.6%), it is expected that their votes will be the biggest variable in determining the next leadership of both ruling and opposition parties. The proportion of first-term lawmakers increased by 19 compared to 132 (44%) in the 20th National Assembly, marking the highest since the 17th general election in 2004 (62.5%).

According to political circles on the 22nd, from the latter half of this week, candidates of the Democratic Party of Korea will begin targeting first-term lawmakers in preparation for the election of floor leaders and party leaders. A Democratic Party official said, "As the elected members are finishing schedules such as general election case greetings, lawmakers who are considering running for party leader or floor leader will start contacting them intensively from today or tomorrow to arrange meal appointments." Among the Democratic Party first-term lawmakers participating in the floor leader election scheduled for the 7th of next month, they account for 40% (68 members).

Among the expected candidates for floor leader, 18 first-term lawmakers from the Moon Jae-in administration's Blue House are a focus of attention. The seven candidates mentioned as floor leader contenders, including Jeon Hae-cheol, Cho Jung-sik, Kim Tae-nyeon, and Yoon Ho-jung, are expected to concentrate on courting the votes of 'Blue House alumni' such as Ko Min-jung and Yoon Gun-young. Jeon is classified as 'pro-Moon (pro-Moon Jae-in),' while Cho, Yoon, and Kim are considered close to Lee Hae-chan, the party leader. A Democratic Party official said, "Even among Blue House alumni, they are not all classified into the same faction," adding, "It is uncertain what choices they will make."

There is also analysis that courting first-term lawmakers began during the general election period. Former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon, who is mentioned as a strong presidential candidate and expected to run for Democratic Party leader, served as the sponsor chairman for 38 candidates in the last general election. Among them, 22, including Kim Yong-min and Lee Tan-hee, entered the National Assembly and were early classified as part of the 'Lee Nak-yeon faction.' There is also speculation about Hong Young-pyo, who has a solid position within the party, having served as floor leader in the 20th National Assembly, possibly running for party leader.

However, since this general election saw the entry of many new lawmakers including North Korean defectors, the youngest lawmakers, medical professionals due to COVID-19, and female lawmakers, there is analysis that traditional factions may not work. In the United Future Party, which is preparing to form an emergency committee, 'reform theory' is emerging as an important campaign point. Among the 84 district winners, 40 are first-term lawmakers, accounting for nearly half. A United Future Party official expressed concern, saying, "Even among the United Future Party winners, there is an evaluation that there is no future for conservatism as it is." Ultimately, if the theory of generational change spreads further, it could mean the empowerment and organization of first-term lawmakers within the United Future Party. Similar to the Democratic Party, the influence of first-term lawmakers in the United Future Party is expected to grow during the floor leader election process.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party has formed an election management committee to oversee the floor leader election and the Speaker election of the 21st National Assembly and plans to hold the floor leader election on the 7th of next month. The Speaker group consists of one Speaker and two Deputy Speakers, of which the Speaker and one Deputy Speaker belong to the Democratic Party as the 'majority party.' The schedule for the Speaker election has not been set. On the other hand, the United Future Party is repeatedly facing confusion as it has not set related schedules.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.