English Researchers Suggest COVID-19 May Have Emerged in September, Not Late Last Year

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] A study has suggested that the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) may have first emerged in southern China as early as September last year, earlier than the previously known initial outbreak period at the end of last year. The origin of COVID-19 is expected to remain a sensitive issue in the future, as it could be linked to responsibility for the spread of the disease.

On the 17th, the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that a research team led by Professor Peter Foster, a genetics professor at the University of Cambridge in the UK, recently announced research results based on an analysis using over 1,000 complete genome sequences of the COVID-19 virus. The study suggests that the initial outbreak of COVID-19 may have occurred earlier than previously known, possibly in September last year. The researchers estimated that the first spread within China likely happened between September 13 and December 7 last year, in a region further south than Wuhan, Hubei Province, which was previously known as the initial epicenter.

Professor Foster stated, "The virus may have mutated into a harmful form to humans and remained for several months without transmission in bats, other host animals, or within humans themselves," adding, "It then began spreading among people between September and December." The research team had previously reconstructed the early evolutionary pathway of the virus using a mathematical algorithm called a 'phylogenetic network,' based on viral genome analysis results published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Their research highlighted that the COVID-19 virus spread worldwide through three types of mutations, and notably, viruses from patients in the United States and Australia were found to be closer to bat-derived viruses than those from East Asian patients.

The COVID-19 virus is known to have originated from bats, showing a 96% match with a bat virus collected in Yunnan Province, southern China, in 2013. However, there are hundreds of mutations between the bat virus and COVID-19. Considering that coronaviruses typically mutate about once a month, it is possible that the virus quietly spread over several years, gradually evolving into a form capable of infecting humans. Professor Foster's team also speculated that a previously harmless virus may have transformed into a deadly pathogen, with the first COVID-19 patient only appearing recently.

The origin of COVID-19 remains a sensitive issue as it relates to responsibility for the spread of the disease, with the United States and China continuing to blame each other. The Chinese government has suggested that Americans who participated in the World Military Games held in Wuhan in October last year may have brought the virus, while former U.S. President Donald Trump referred to COVID-19 as the "China virus," asserting that it first emerged in China.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.