[21st General Election] Future United Party's Total Defeat, 'Clock at Zero'... After Advocating Regime Judgment, They Were Judged

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporters Park Cheol-eung and Lee Ji-eun] The United Future Party, which suffered a crushing defeat in the April 15 general election, now finds itself at a crossroads between life and death. Former leader Hwang Kyo-ahn resigned, and even presidential hopefuls like Na Kyung-won and Oh Se-hoon were consecutively defeated. Rather than being recognized as an alternative force, the party was criticized for "foot-dragging," which is cited as a major cause of the defeat. Until the very end, the party focused on attacking former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk but failed to win over the moderate voters. The "regime judgment theory" ultimately backfired as a "judgment against the opposition party."

Former leader Hwang held an emergency press conference around midnight on the 15th at the National Assembly Library auditorium, stating, "I will take full responsibility," and announced his resignation. Consequently, the United Future Party is inevitably transitioning to an emergency response committee system. However, Kim Jong-in, the general election committee chairman who is considered a strong candidate for the emergency committee chairmanship, drew a line by saying, "I believe my mission was up to the election day, and after the election, I will step down cleanly."

With former leader Hwang losing to former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon in Jongno by nearly 20 percentage points, and presidential hopefuls Oh and Na also tasting defeat in their constituencies, the United Future Party is now in a "zero hour" state for the time being. Attention is also on whether Hong Joon-pyo, former Saenuri Party leader who revived himself as an independent in Daegu, will return to the party. He is scheduled to announce his future plans along with a victory greeting in front of Suseong Lake in Daegu at 8 p.m. that day.

On the 16th, Representative-elect Hong said, "I will correct the conservative right-wing ideology and identity of the United Future Party and restart so that we can bring the regime to power in 2022." This is interpreted as hinting at a possible presidential bid. He added, "I have already served as party leader twice. Therefore, I do not intend to seize party leadership again." This suggests a separation between party leadership and presidential ambitions. However, the key issue is how Representative-elect Hong will shake up the new leadership system of the United Future Party following the emergency committee and exert his influence.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The catastrophic defeat of the United Future Party appears to be decisively influenced by voters prioritizing "stable governance" over "regime judgment" amid the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a Gallup Korea poll, President Moon Jae-in's job approval rating fell to 41% in the last week of January but recovered to 57% by the second week of this month. Among those with a positive evaluation, 59% cited "COVID-19 response" as the reason. While the United Future Party's support remained in the low 20% range, the Democratic Party's support rose from 37% at the end of last month to 44% just before the polling blackout. Considering that the undecided voters dropped sharply from 27% to 18% during the same period, it is interpreted that moderate voters ultimately swung to the Democratic Party at the last moment.

The United Future Party advocated for banning Chinese nationals from entering the country and blamed the government for the mask shortage crisis, but these efforts had little effect on swaying voter sentiment. An Il-won, CEO of Research View, said, "For the United Future Party to translate the favorable condition of regime evaluation into votes, it needed to present itself as an alternative force. However, during the COVID-19 crisis, calls for presidential impeachment made the party appear as one that only opposes, evoking memories of the Roh Moo-hyun era and consolidating Democratic Party supporters."

It was also fatal that the party failed to demonstrate itself as an alternative force, as seen in last year's opposition to the fast-track passage of the election law reform bill, which sparked criticism of the so-called "animal National Assembly." The defeat of Na Kyung-won, who played a leading role as floor leader at the time, to political newcomer Lee Su-jin is evidence of this. The defeat of her successor, floor leader Shim Jae-cheol, can also be interpreted along the same lines.

In the final stages of the election, Kim Dae-ho's disparaging remarks about the 30s and 40s age group and Cha Myung-jin's offensive comments related to the Sewol ferry disaster dealt a decisive blow to the United Future Party. Although the party consistently attacked former Minister Cho through election slogans, its momentum waned as allegations of collusion between the prosecution and the media surfaced near the end of the election. In one of the fiercest battlegrounds in Gangwon Province?Chuncheon, Cheorwon, Hwacheon, and Yanggu Gap?Kim Jin-tae of the United Future Party, who had previously sparked controversy with offensive remarks, was pushed out by Democratic Party's Heo Young, which can be seen as a consequence of this.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.