[Deputy Director's Column] The President's Luck, The Luck of the Republic of Korea

[Asia Economy Reporter Jin-young Hwang] In the early days of the Moon Jae-in administration, Blue House aides privately said that President Moon was born with the fortune of having a weak opposition party. Despite the initial setbacks such as the withdrawal of ministerial candidates without a transition team, President Moon was able to maintain control of state affairs thanks to the fragmented opposition party. The Liberty Korea Party, which showed signs of internal division following the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye and the aftermath of the presidential election defeat, was even referred to by opposition lawmakers as an "unprecedentedly weak opposition party." The ruling party's landslide victory in the local elections held in the second year of Moon's presidency was partly due to the opposition's weakness.

Ahead of this general election, ruling party figures also spoke about the president's innate luck. Although the fourth year of an administration is considered the most difficult to hold elections, it is said that the "match luck" of facing a weak opposition without a strong leader and the fact that COVID-19, which was expected to be a major adverse factor, turned into a favorable factor can only be explained by the president's fortune.

When the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases surged domestically and long lines formed in front of pharmacies due to mask shortages, public sentiment was on the verge of exploding. When the Democratic Party of Korea decided to participate in the proportional representation party despite the flood of criticism, the stated reason was to secure enough seats to prevent the president's impeachment. However, as damage escalated in Europe and the United States, evaluations of our government's COVID-19 response dramatically changed. A ruling party official said, "In absolute terms, it might be a B or C grade, but in relative terms compared to the U.S. and Europe, it is like receiving an A," adding, "Who would have known that the U.S. and Europe would be so helpless against COVID-19? Watching the foreign damage grow and the public's evaluation rapidly change, I thought the president is truly fortunate." A Blue House aide nearby added that because the president, born with luck, is leading South Korea, the nation's fortune will also rise.

In the general election held in the government's fourth year, the ruling party and the pro-Moon proportional representation party achieved a record victory by securing 180 seats. While it cannot be said that the two nationwide election victories since President Moon's inauguration are solely due to his fortune, having the support of a massive ruling party in the latter half of his term is an unparalleled blessing. The ruling party can exercise most legislative powers except for constitutional amendments, allowing the president to push a stronger reform drive than at the beginning of his term.

Right after the landslide victory in the 2018 local elections, President Moon said at a Blue House senior secretaries and aides meeting, "I think it is a fear that really chills the spine and causes cold sweat on the back," calming the mood that could have become overly excited by the election victory. He also said, "We have many experiences where victory in an election returned as a very harsh judgment in the next election." It is uncertain whether the president's fortune will translate into national fortune, but the fact that the president was not intoxicated by the election victory seems to be one factor in the general election win.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.