[Hot-Button Public Sentiment - Chuncheon, Cheorwon, Hwacheon, Yanggu Gap] Kim Jin-tae, Aiming for Revenge and a Third Term, in a Close Race Within the Margin of Error

허 Young, the Democratic Party candidate (left), and Kim Jin-tae, the United Future Party candidate, running in the Gangwon Chuncheon City, Cheorwon County, Hwacheon County, and Yanggu County Gap electoral district.
Photo by each candidate

[Asia Economy Reporter Jin-young Hwang] The Chuncheon City, Cheorwon County, Hwacheon County, and Yanggu County Gap district, where Kim Jin-tae of the United Future Party, who is running for a third term, and Heo Young of the Democratic Party of Korea, who is seeking revenge for his defeat in the last general election, are competing, continues to see a tight race until the final moments of the election.

According to the survey results registered with the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission on the 14th, two polls conducted just before the ban period on publishing polls (from the 9th to 6 p.m. on the 15th) showed different leaders.

In both surveys, the gap between the first and second place candidates was within the margin of error.

Based on the poll results, it is difficult to predict who will win the rematch.

In a poll conducted by Korea Research on the 6th and 7th, commissioned by Chuncheon MBC, Chuncheon KBS, Gangwon Ilbo, G1 Gangwon Minbang, and Gangwon Domin Ilbo, targeting 510 men and women aged 18 or older residing in this electoral district, Heo received 47.5%, Kim 42.5%, and Justice Party candidate Eom Jae-cheol 2.4%.

The support gap between Heo and Kim was 5.0 percentage points, within the margin of error (±4.3 percentage points).

Party support rates were 43.5% for the Democratic Party and 35.9% for the United Future Party. (For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

In a poll conducted by Jo Won C&I on the 6th and 7th, commissioned by CBS, targeting 500 men and women aged 18 or older residing in this electoral district, Kim received 45.8%, Heo 44.6%, and Eom 4.6%.

Kim was ahead of Heo within the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points).

Party support rates were 41.0% for the Democratic Party and 40.1% for the United Future Party.

Compared to the Korea Research poll, the United Future Party's support rate was 4.2 percentage points higher, and Kim's support rate was 3.3 percentage points higher.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party's support rate was 2.0 percentage points lower than in the Korea Research poll, and Heo's support rate was also 2.9 percentage points lower.

The slight difference in results despite being conducted on the same day is attributed to the different proportions of landline telephone usage.

The Korea Research poll had a 9% landline telephone proportion, whereas Jo Won C&I had 30%.

Generally, a higher proportion of landline telephones increases the response rate among middle-aged and older adults.

Among the 510 respondents who completed the Korea Research survey, 173 (33.9%) were aged 50 or older, while in the Jo Won C&I survey, 182 out of 500 (36.4%) were aged 50 or older.

Even if there is a difference in the number of respondents aged 50 or older, the reflection ratio is the same because the sample is allocated by age group.

Heo and Kim previously competed in the last general election.

At that time, Kim won re-election by receiving 66,374 votes (50.54%), defeating Heo, who received 60,333 votes (45.94%).

This general election features a variable in that Chuncheon was divided into Gap and Eul electoral districts along the Soyang River boundary.

The Chuncheon City, Cheorwon County, Hwacheon County, and Yanggu County Gap district covers the southern part of Chuncheon City, while the Eul district includes northern Chuncheon and Cheorwon, Hwacheon, and Yanggu.

Heo, who served as chief secretary to Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, has expressed his ambition to "restore the honor and pride of Chuncheon, which has been damaged during the past eight years of Kim Jin-tae's tenure as a member of the National Assembly, and to break the neglect and discrimination against Chuncheon."

Kim, a two-term lawmaker, is appealing for support with the catchphrase "The power of the third term, revive Chuncheon's economy."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.