'Interim Defense Cost Agreement' Defeated by Trump, Negotiations May Drift Until November

Stalled at Final Agreement Threshold... Defense Cost Talks Deadlocked Again, Long-Term Drift Possible
Foreign Media: 'President Donald Trump Rejected South Korea's Proposal to Raise by at Least 13%'
13th Day of Unpaid Leave for Korean Workers at USFK... Forced Unpaid Leave Threatens Livelihood of Over 4,000

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Cheol-young] "Considering that considerable consensus is being reached, we expect a final agreement soon." (Jeong Eun-bo, South Korea-US defense cost-sharing negotiation ambassador, March 31, US)

"Negotiations have been ongoing and have never ended. If an agreement is reached, it must be mutually beneficial and fair." (Clark Cooper, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, April 2, US local time)

"President Donald Trump rejected South Korea's proposal to increase the defense cost-sharing by at least 13%." (Foreign media report, April 10, US local time)

The tentative agreement painstakingly reached by the working-level delegations of South Korea and the United States was overturned by President Donald Trump. The 11th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) on defense cost-sharing, which found a compromise at a level at least 13% higher than last year, was rejected by the final decision-maker, President Trump, putting the timing of the defense cost-sharing agreement's conclusion back into indefinite delay. The so-called 'Trump variable' is drawing criticism for threatening the South Korea-US military readiness and the livelihoods of Korean workers employed by the US Forces Korea. The unpaid leave of about 4,000 Korean workers at US Forces Korea has entered its 13th day.

According to explanations and analyses from government officials around the time of the foreign media reports on April 13 that President Trump rejected South Korea's proposal, the tentative agreement proposed by the South Korea-US defense cost-sharing negotiation team had reached a consensus even among the foreign ministers of both countries but failed to pass the presidential approval, thus not crossing the final hurdle.

Foreign media reported that the defense cost increase included in the tentative agreement conveyed by the US negotiation team to President Trump was at least 13% compared to last year, amounting to about 1.175 trillion won, nearly 140 billion won more than last year's 1.0389 trillion won. This is similar to the main points of the tentative agreement previously reported by the South Korea-US working-level negotiation team: "a defense cost increase rate of 10% plus alpha compared to 2019, with a negotiation cycle of five years." According to foreign media, on March 31 local time, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper visited the White House to discuss the tentative agreement but decided to reject South Korea's proposal.

Negotiations have again fallen into a deadlock. However, the South Korean government does not plan to immediately present a new proposal. Since the tentative agreement approved by the working-level negotiation team and foreign ministers did not lead to a final agreement, there is a high possibility of similar situations recurring unless a tentative agreement with a 'significant increase' is proposed. Nevertheless, the South Korean government cannot back down from its principle of 'a fair and reasonable level of defense cost increase,' which it has upheld for seven months, nor accept an unreasonable increase demand.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Some speculate that the defense cost-sharing negotiations may continue until the US presidential election in November. As confirmed cases and deaths from the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) surge in the US, President Trump, who is seeking re-election, is under pressure, but it is unlikely he will abandon one of his campaign pledges, the 'significant increase in defense cost-sharing.'

In diplomatic circles, there is also an assessment that if it does not help the election, the US might risk weakening the South Korea-US military readiness. Furthermore, since the outcome of this defense cost-sharing negotiation could affect NATO and Japan's defense cost-sharing negotiations, it is analyzed that it could negatively impact the prompt conclusion of the South Korea-US defense cost-sharing talks.

As the South Korea-US defense cost-sharing negotiations, which seemed to be nearing the end, enter a prolonged phase, it has become difficult to expect an early end to the unpaid leave of about 4,000 Korean workers at US Forces Korea, now in its 13th day. Since most of the Korean workers' salaries are borne by the US side, they are dependent on the agreement. As their livelihoods are increasingly threatened, voices are growing for the Ministry of National Defense and related agencies to promptly present emergency support measures for the Korean workers.

A diplomatic source said, "It seems unlikely that face-to-face talks related to the defense cost-sharing negotiations will take place immediately, and high-level talks will also have difficulty gaining momentum," adding, "The South Korean government will have no choice but to present support measures for the Korean workers, and the implementation of these measures will serve as an opportunity for society to reconsider the South Korea-US alliance."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.