[Post-COVID Global Hegemony Outlook] US Leadership Shaken... A World of Every Man for Himself May Come

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] There are growing forecasts that a reorganization of the world order will be inevitable after the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) crisis. A representative prediction is that changes will also appear in the hegemony competition centered on the United States and China. There is weight behind concerns that the global influence of the U.S. will be damaged, causing serious worldwide chaos, and the view that China, stigmatized as the origin of the epidemic, will focus on internal consolidation to pursue national interests. We examined the future of the U.S. and China after COVID-19.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 8th, the U.S. State Department suddenly issued a statement under the name of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. It announced that the U.S. had allocated $274 million (about 333.3 billion KRW) to support the international community's response to COVID-19, expressing its intention to maintain leadership in the international community. However, local media assessments were cold. The prevailing analysis was that this support was not a genuine intention to aid the international community but a measure born out of concern over the decline of U.S. influence.

This statement is evaluated as symbolically showing the declining status of the U.S., which had held global hegemony during the epidemic crisis. Particularly, Pompeo's statement came right after criticism that the U.S. was seizing medical equipment from various countries, making it significant. Reports that the Trump administration, which has unhesitatingly pressured allies on defense cost-sharing and withdrew troops from Afghanistan, was even taking medical equipment meant for allies, were enough to damage the authority of the U.S., the world's strongest power. Added to this was criticism of leadership incompetence for failing to secure medical equipment due to initial response failures. The Washington Post (WP) editorial pointed out, "COVID-19 has had a huge impact on the lives and economy of Americans, but at the same time, it is also damaging U.S. leadership," adding, "Above all, the negative impact on diplomacy is particularly painful because it is self-inflicted."

This image of the U.S. can be said to herald a major transformation of the world order after COVID-19. U.S. experts agree that the influence of the global hegemon, the U.S., is clearly declining, and predict an era in which countries will navigate their own destinies. Cory Shark, a counselor at the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies, recently wrote in a Foreign Policy column, "The U.S. will no longer be seen as the leader of the world," citing narrow self-interest and incompetence as reasons. Samantha Power, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, warned in a New York Times op-ed a day before Pompeo's statement that the COVID-19 crisis would be a turning point for the rapid decline of U.S. international influence. Power previously led U.S. efforts with the UN to combat the Ebola virus outbreak in Africa during the Obama administration.

Thomas Wright, director of the U.S. and Europe Center at the Brookings Institution, predicted for these reasons that "the U.S.-led international order, which has been maintained through the end of the Cold War, 9/11, and the international financial crisis, will change this time," foreseeing an era of 'every man for himself' where countries must solve crises on their own. He added that the world already distrusts the U.S. due to its irresponsible actions.

The U.S. vacuum and global self-reliance are expected to lead to changes in various fields such as trade and supply chains. The U.S. and China concluded a Phase One trade agreement earlier this year, but there is growing likelihood that not only Phase Two negotiations but even the Phase One agreement will not be properly upheld.

However, there is also the view that no one can replace the U.S. void. Power noted that although China is providing masks and medical gloves to various countries, it cannot fill the gap left by the U.S. in securing the status of a 'superpower.'

She seemed conscious of China's Belt and Road Initiative, stating, "'Health Silk Road' creation is clearly different from leading the world." The U.S.'s abundant diplomatic field experience is an asset no other country possesses, and the absence of a superpower in the international order could create new crises, she said, expressing heightened concern.

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's warning is more direct. He emphasized, "The U.S. government must urgently begin planning for a new era while protecting Americans from the virus." He said, "Although national leaders are responding to this crisis on a country-by-country basis, the virus recognizes no borders," adding, "There are limits to individual efforts. Global cooperation must accompany this." This means the world must cooperate under U.S. leadership.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.