The '50s' Vote That Swayed Election Outcomes, This Time...

On the 9th, the early voting station for the 21st National Assembly election was set up at the G check-in counter in the departure hall of Terminal 1 at Incheon International Airport. Early voting will take place over two days, from the 10th to the 11th, from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Nahum] With less than a week remaining until the April 15 general election, political attention is focused on the voting intentions of the '50s generation. This is because not only do they represent the largest number of voters, but they have also consistently played the role of a 'casting vote' in past elections. Analysts predict that the outcome of this election will also hinge on the choices made by voters in their 50s.

According to the Central Election Commission on the 9th, the number of voters in their 50s registered in the voter list for the 21st general election is 8.65 million, accounting for 19.7%, the largest proportion. This is followed by voters in their 40s with 8.36 million (19.0%), 30s with 6.99 million (15.9%), 20s with 6.8 million (15.5%), 60s with 6.44 million (14.6%), 70 and above with 5.57 million (12.7%), and teens with 1.15 million (2.6%). Simply looking at the numbers suggests that the voting intentions of those in their 50s will have a significant impact on the general election.

Notably, the decisive battleground in the last two presidential elections was the 50s age group. The 20s to 40s, who tend to lean progressive, consistently supported candidate Moon Jae-in, while those aged 60 and above, who tend to be conservative, showed a tendency to vote for conservative party candidates (Park Geun-hye and Hong Joon-pyo). Meanwhile, voters in their 50s shifted their support from conservative party candidates to progressive party candidates over the course of the two elections. Ultimately, the candidate who secured the most votes from the 50s age group won each election.

In the past, people often grouped those in their 50s with those 60 and older as the elderly demographic, and analyses suggested that higher voter turnout among this group favored conservative parties. However, it is widely expected that this old formula will not hold true in the 21st general election. This is because the so-called '86 generation,' born in the 1960s and attending university in the 1980s, forms the core of the 50s age group.

In particular, having experienced the democratization movement firsthand, this group has a strong progressive inclination. Recent public opinion polls support this analysis. According to a poll conducted by Realmeter commissioned by tbs from June 6 to 8 (1,509 respondents nationwide aged 18 and over, 5.1% response rate, margin of error ±2.5 percentage points at 95% confidence level; detailed information available on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website), 42.3% of voters in their 50s supported the Democratic Party, while 31% supported the United Future Party. Similarly, in an earlier poll by Korea Gallup in the first week of April (1,002 respondents nationwide aged 18 and over, 14% response rate, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level; detailed information available on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website), the Democratic Party's support among those in their 50s was 42%, and the United Future Party's support was 27%.

However, there is also a view that support rates should not be directly equated with votes in the general election. Those in their 50s occupy a social position that makes them particularly sensitive to economic and livelihood issues, and they also show great interest in the theme of 'fairness' as they deal with their children's college entrance exams. During the height of the Cho Kuk controversy last August, the approval rating of President Moon Jae-in among voters in their 50s dropped to the 30% range. Issues such as the economy and fairness are often used by opposition parties to criticize the Moon administration. If a clear message addressing the concerns of voters in their 50s is not delivered, there is an analysis that even those with a 'progressive' inclination might cast their votes in a different box at the actual polling station.

Experts also predict that voters in their 50s will be the casting vote in this election. They point to the 'COVID-19 situation' as a critical variable that will influence the voting intentions of the 50s generation. An Ilwon, CEO of ResearchView, said, "In the COVID-19 situation, the progressive party has presented 'overcoming the national crisis' as its main slogan for the general election, while the conservative party has put forward 'judging the administration.' This is an issue that can clearly divide voters' choices," adding, "The 50s generation, which is more rational than any other group in viewing current issues and also has many swing voters, will determine the victory or defeat of the ruling and opposition parties based on their judgment."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.