[Q&A] "High-Intensity Social Distancing Effects Just Beginning... Reemergence Possible Anytime"

Kwon Jun-wook, Deputy Director of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters for COVID-19 (Director of the National Institute of Health)

[Asia Economy Reporter Choi Dae-yeol] Kwon Jun-wook, Deputy Director of the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said on the 7th, "Yesterday and today, fewer than 50 new cases of COVID-19 have been reported," adding, "Considering the timing, the effects of the first week of the high-intensity social distancing measures that began last month are now becoming apparent."

Earlier, the government requested compliance with social distancing measures across all sectors starting from the 22nd of last month to curb the spread of COVID-19. As the initial two-week period ended, the measures were extended once more, and currently, strict distancing measures continue.

Deputy Director Kwon stated, "COVID-19 can be transmitted by asymptomatic individuals or from two days before symptoms appear, so if precautions are neglected, the outbreak can resurge at any time," adding, "Experts estimate that implementing measures for an average of more than three weeks can reduce COVID-19 cases by over 95%. We believe these effects will manifest in the fourth week, so we ask everyone to properly adhere to the guidelines."

The following is a Q&A with Deputy Director Kwon during the briefing that day.

- There is news that two patients treated with plasma therapy have fully recovered. How do you evaluate this?

▲ The guidelines from the quarantine authorities are currently under expert review in writing and will be finalized within a few days. The guidelines are based on the convalescent plasma guidelines created during the MERS outbreak. I understand that the patients were discharged in an improved condition, but more expert review and exchange of opinions are needed regarding the treatment's effectiveness. Since there is no definitive treatment or vaccine yet, and plasma therapy is important for reducing mortality in severe patients, we will prepare to activate a system for securing and administering convalescent plasma after thorough review.

- How are discussions progressing regarding voting participation methods for those in self-quarantine?

▲ Internally, we are discussing ways to prevent infection and ensure safety. We will announce details soon.

- How long must the number of new cases remain below 50 and the proportion of cases with unknown infection routes stay within 5% before transitioning to daily life quarantine?

▲ Modeling techniques have confirmed that with strong social distancing, transmission chains can be cut, reducing cases by nearly 95% by around the third week compared to the start. Although it is difficult to completely eliminate the remaining small number of cases, if transmission is reduced to that extent, the outbreak is unlikely to become active again, according to health authorities and experts. The target of 'below 50 cases and within 5%' is important. The proportion of cases with unknown infection routes is also significant, and considering the incubation period, we are looking at about two weeks. Essentially, this week marks the results of the first week of the strong social distancing measures that have passed, so if these conditions continue through this and next week, we will prepare to implement various directions for daily life quarantine while monitoring the proportion of cases with unknown infection routes.

- Regarding the successful creation of a COVID-19 vaccine candidate announced by the National Institute of Health, when will the vaccine be developed?

▲ To speak objectively, worldwide research is ongoing on DNA vaccines, RNA vaccines, and subunit vaccines related to COVID-19, but humanity has not yet succeeded in commercializing any. Vaccines for MERS and SARS have also not been commercialized. The WHO Secretary-General mentioned about 18 months, but some experts consider this an optimistic estimate.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.