Down to 200s in 12 Days... 'Social Distancing' Shows Hope

248 New Confirmed Cases 50 Days After First Case...Three-Day Decline in Hundreds

Compliance with Hygiene Rules · Refrain from Gatherings

[Asia Economy Reporters Choi Daeyeol, Kim Heungsun, Jo Hyunui] On the 9th, the number of newly confirmed domestic cases of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) was recorded in the 200s for the first time in 12 days, easing concerns about a large-scale additional outbreak. COVID-19 has a strong transmission power from the early stage of infection, and symptoms are mild or even unnoticeable in young people or those without underlying conditions, so the quarantine authorities have been concerned about the possibility of a large-scale spread from the initial stage.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), which belongs to the same coronavirus family, was different in that patients recognized symptoms immediately upon infection and voluntarily refrained from social activities, preventing transmission in daily life. In contrast, COVID-19 did not show this pattern, and most of the confirmed community infection cases after the initial patients imported from abroad were due to contact with surrounding patients in daily life. Without a 'definite weapon' such as treatment or vaccine, the social distancing emphasized by the quarantine authorities to prevent community spread was analyzed to have been effective.

Hope Found in 'Social Distancing'
Despite High Early Transmission, "Large-Scale Spread Was Prevented"

According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters on this day, the daily additional confirmed cases have been continuously decreasing: 518 on the 6th, 483 on the 7th, 367 on the 8th, and 248 on the 9th. The number of additional confirmed cases in Daegu, where cases related to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus surged, has sharply decreased, reducing the total number of patients. Daegu's daily additional confirmed cases peaked at 741 on the 29th of last month, dropped to the 400s on the 4th of this month (405 cases), and sharply fell to 190 on this day. This was because the quarantine authorities and the city quickly identified patients through focused testing of Shincheonji believers.

According to Daegu City, among 10,471 Shincheonji Daegu Church believers subject to testing excluding those in military service or living abroad, 10,220 have completed testing, and among 9,651 whose results were notified, 4,137 tested positive. Most of these are believed to have been reflected in the authorities' computer system.

The voluntary participation of the public in the social distancing campaign emphasized by the government, local governments, and related academic societies is also considered to have been effective. The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine proposed the social distancing campaign on the 19th of last month, and Seoul City expanded the ban on gatherings in major areas starting from the 26th of last month. The Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism, the main ministry in charge of religious affairs, requested on the 28th of last month to refrain from offline religious gatherings, and major denominations such as the Catholic Church, Buddhism, and Christianity joined in. Additionally, the academic COVID-19 countermeasure committee issued a public appeal on the 29th of last month urging 'minimization of social contact.'

This social distancing stands out considering that newly confirmed cases are rapidly increasing in major overseas countries recently. Although the outbreak started later than in Korea, COVID-19 has been spreading recently in major European countries such as Italy, France, and Germany. In particular, these countries have reported infections linked to large-scale urban gatherings or events with crowds, indicating a lack of vigilance.

On the 8th (local time), a notice board announcing the closure was set up in front of the Colosseum in Rome, Italy. To prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in Italy, museums, cinemas, and other entertainment facilities were simultaneously ordered to close on this day.

Decrease in China and Korea, Rising Concerns of Spread in Other Countries
Started Later than Korea but Spread Faster, "Lack of Vigilance"

According to data estimated by the Infectious Disease Mathematical Modeling Center at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine based on outbreak data from major countries, the effective reproduction number in Hubei Province, China?the initial outbreak site?was between 0.4 and 0.5, showing a clear downward trend. For Korea, the data so far is inconclusive regarding increase or decrease, but the index is around 0.9 to 1.0, the lowest among countries with community spread. The center analyzed that most countries with community infections, including Switzerland with a maximum of 4.9, the UK (3.6), Austria (3.5), and Sweden (5.2), are showing a definite upward trend.

The authorities judge that the trend of rapidly increasing new cases centered on Daegu and Gyeongbuk has entered a somewhat stable phase this week. Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said at a briefing the day before, "In the past week, about 10,000 Shincheonji believers in Daegu and about 5,000 in Gyeongbuk have been subject to self-quarantine and sequential testing, resulting in a significant number of confirmed cases," adding, "As testing for most believers in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk areas has been completed, the number of patients is decreasing."

Park Neung-hoo, first head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters, said, "Based on the current trend, the central areas of Daegu and Gyeongbuk are showing early signs of stabilization," and added, "There is no observation yet of rapid nationwide spread, which is entirely thanks to the voluntary cooperation of the public."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.