"If No Deal by June, Will Leave" Johnson Threatens EU

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who set the Brexit transition period until the end of the year, has significantly moved up the negotiation deadline with the European Union (EU) to the first half of this year. Ahead of the future relationship negotiations starting on the 2nd of next month, he warned, "If we do not reach a broad agreement on the trade deal by June, we will suspend negotiations and prepare according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) framework." This is interpreted as an attempt to gain the upper hand against the EU, the negotiation counterpart.

According to the daily The Guardian and others on the 27th (local time), the UK government submitted the 'Guidelines for Responding to Future Relationship Negotiations with the EU' to the House of Commons, which centers on this content. The guidelines, spanning 30 pages, include the UK's basic stance and strategy on the negotiations. The UK government emphasized 'sovereignty,' highlighted by Prime Minister Johnson, and clearly stated that it cannot accept EU laws or the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) within its territory.

The guidelines were released ahead of the first future relationship negotiations between the two sides, scheduled for the 2nd to 5th of next month in Brussels, Belgium. This will be the first time the two sides sit at the table since Brexit on the 31st of last month. The second round of negotiations will also take place in London on the 16th of next month.

Regarding the trade agreement with the EU, the UK stated in the guidelines that it seeks a free market based on tariff-free trade in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. It also expressed a desire for an agreement similar to those the EU has with other countries such as Canada, South Korea, and Japan. Concerning financial services, a core industry of the UK, it stated that access to the EU financial market should be allowed while providing a predictable, business-friendly environment to ensure legal certainty for companies. The important fisheries agreement for EU member states should be concluded separately from the trade agreement, recognizing the UK's independent status.

For the UK government, neither a Canada-style Free Trade Agreement (FTA) nor the WTO framework significantly contributes to economic growth. However, since the EU would suffer greater damage, the UK is willing to take risks and pressure the EU. The UK plans to internally prepare for trade issues such as tariffs and quotas that may arise after June if no broad agreement is reached with the EU by the EU summit in June during the remaining transition period. If the basic framework of the trade agreement is not agreed upon within the remaining four months, there is a high possibility of economic shocks similar to a No Deal Brexit.

However, since both the UK and the EU are strongly pushing their positions even before negotiations begin, the negotiation process is expected to face difficulties. The EU is maintaining a stance as tough as the UK's. The 46-page negotiation guidelines released on the 25th stated that the UK must follow existing EU regulations regarding government subsidies, environmental standards, and labor rights. Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, emphasized, "We must conduct complex and demanding negotiations within a limited time," and "The EU will not pursue an agreement at any cost." He added, "The short negotiation period was chosen by the UK government, not us," and "We cannot do everything within this period. We will do as much as possible under time pressure."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.