Expert: "500,000 Infections Predicted in Wuhan, China... The Next 2-3 Weeks Are Crucial"

English Researchers Predict 1 in 20 People in Wuhan Infected
Chinese Infection Statistics Underestimate Cases, Focused on Severe Patients
Next 2-3 Weeks Critical for Global Spread

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] An analysis has emerged predicting that one in every 20 people in Wuhan city, which was locked down last month, will contract the novel coronavirus. It is expected that more than 500,000 infections will occur within Wuhan.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

On the 9th (local time), Professor Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) introduced these research findings through Bloomberg News. Professor Kucharski stated, "If the current upward trend continues, the number of infections in Wuhan is expected to peak in mid to late this month," adding, "Although there are many variables, considering the current trend, the infection rate during this period is expected to exceed 5%."

Professor Kucharski applied a mathematical modeling technique that analyzes the spread of epidemics to make this prediction. The exact infection rate and other details are expected to be confirmed after serological testing becomes available.

Other experts also believe that the number of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan has been underestimated compared to the actual scale. Professor Manuel Battegay of the University of Basel in Switzerland said, "Since Chinese authorities focused on severe cases, most mild or asymptomatic patients were likely not even counted as novel coronavirus cases."

Ian Lipkin, director of the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health, mentioned the recent slowdown in the increase of novel coronavirus cases in China and predicted, "From mid to late this month, the number of infections could dramatically decrease."

However, some analyses suggest that the next 2 to 3 weeks will be critical. So far, it has taken about 14 days for symptoms to appear in novel coronavirus patients, making it crucial to determine whether the Chinese government's quarantine measures have been effective. Professor Benjamin Cowling of the University of Hong Kong said, "The next 2 to 3 weeks will be critical," adding, "Thanks to the measures taken so far, we will be able to know during this period whether the virus spreads worldwide."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.