[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Today is North Korea's Army Foundation Day... Will They Unveil New Weapons?

North Korea's 'Hwasong-15'

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu Reporter] Attention is focused on whether North Korea will hold a large-scale military parade on the 8th to commemorate the founding of its regular army, known as Army Day. North Korea’s Army Day is on February 8, the day the regular army was established (1948). From 1978 to 2017, it was commemorated on April 25, the day Chairman Kim Il-sung organized the anti-Japanese guerrilla forces (1932), but it was changed back to the current date starting in 2018.

Army Day is important from North Korea’s perspective. It is a reason to showcase military power through a parade. This year as well, North Korean media were busy stirring up the atmosphere on the 7th, a day before the 72nd anniversary of the regular army’s founding, by reviewing the history of the People’s Army. On that day, the Korean Central News Agency claimed that pro-North groups such as the Switzerland-Korea Committee issued a joint statement praising the Korean People’s Army as “a steel formation that crushes the invasion schemes of hostile forces and firmly protects the country’s security, a reliable guardian of peace.”

However, it is uncertain whether North Korea will hold a large-scale parade this year. It is not a milestone anniversary (such as every 5 or 10 years), and there are expectations that the event will be scaled down due to concerns over the spread of the novel coronavirus (Wuhan pneumonia). In fact, there was no Army Day parade last year either, following the 70th anniversary in 2018, and no central report meeting was held. On the other hand, there are also speculations that North Korea might hold a parade to mark Army Day. On the 24th of last month, the Voice of America (VOA) broadcast claimed, based on analysis of satellite images from the private satellite company Planet Labs, that up to 8,000 troops were estimated to be lined up at a parade training ground southeast of Pyongyang, possibly preparing for a parade ahead of Army Day.

If North Korea holds a parade, Chairman Kim Jong-un may unveil the “new strategic weapon” mentioned in the report at the plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea held at the end of last month. In 2018, during the 70th anniversary Army Day parade held at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea revealed actual models of the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). At the Kim Il-sung 105th birthday (Day of the Sun) parade on April 15, 2017, only the launch tubes of the two ICBMs were shown, but after two rounds of test launches each, their performance was verified, which is interpreted as a display of confidence. The Hwasong-15, launched at a maximum angle reaching an apogee of 4,475 km and landing in the East Sea, is the first missile capable of striking the U.S. mainland.

North Korea also issued commemorative coins featuring the image of the Hwasong-15. According to Lee Sang-hyun, CEO of Taein Co., Ltd. and a sports committee member under the National Reconciliation and Cooperation Council (Minhwahyeop), North Korea newly issued missile-related commemorative coins around December last year. North Korea typically issues various coins related to weapons, sports, and culture, and the last confirmed missile-related coin issuance was on February 5, 2018. At that time, the coin featured the image of the Hwasong-14. Therefore, the issuance of new missile-related commemorative coins came after about two years. The commemorative coin obtained and disclosed by CEO Lee features the image of the Hwasong-15 along with the phrase “Iron principle of strong military power and peace assurance.” This is interpreted as emphasizing the military power of the ICBM-class missile.

There are also claims that North Korea’s Hwasong-15 likely relied on or partially received assistance from old Soviet missile blueprints.

The Washington Post cited a North Korean ICBM analysis report contributed by U.S. and German experts to the British military journal Jane’s Intelligence Review, stating that North Korea’s latest missile and Soviet-made missiles share many similarities. These experts explained that the Hwasong-15, North Korea’s latest ICBM-class missile, shows too many similarities with the missile series from the Soviet era, including missiles developed by Russian engineers that were successful in development but scrapped just before production.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.