Hong Kong University Research Team: "Up to 3.6 Infections per Chinese Patient"

New Coronavirus Similar in Impact to 2015 MERS Outbreak in South Korea

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Heung-soon] An analysis has emerged that the maximum number of infections caused by one patient with the novel coronavirus infection (Wuhan pneumonia) in China has increased to 3.6. This is comparable in impact to the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak that occurred in South Korea in 2015.

According to the latest issue of the "International Journal of Infectious Diseases" (dated January 30), a research team from the University of Hong Kong estimated the reproduction number to be between a minimum of 2.24 and a maximum of 3.58 based on data analysis of novel coronavirus cases in China from January 10 to 24. The infectiousness of a patient transmitting a virus to others is generally estimated by the concept of the reproduction number (R). If this number is 1, it means one person infects only one other person.

The University of Hong Kong research team's announcement on this day shows a significantly higher figure than the World Health Organization (WHO) estimate of the novel coronavirus reproduction number at 1.4 to 2.5, announced on January 24. Previously, the Imperial College London research team and the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention in China suggested reproduction numbers of 2.6 and 2.9 respectively, which are lower than this new estimate.

In the case of previous MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the reproduction numbers were 0.4 to 0.9 and 4 respectively. However, during the 2015 MERS outbreak in South Korea, the reproduction number reached 4.

Experts analyzed that the high reproduction number of the novel coronavirus in China is due to insufficient implementation of extensive quarantine, movement restrictions, infection prevention activities (such as handwashing, wearing masks, and gloves), and rapid diagnosis and isolation treatment during the early stages of the outbreak.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.