[Economic Outlook] Did the Moon Administration Achieve a 2.0% Economic Growth Rate... Attention on the Announcement on the 22nd

Bank of Korea Announces Real GDP Growth Rate for 2019

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyunjung] As South Korea's economic growth rate for last year is scheduled to be announced next week, attention is focused on whether the Moon Jae-in administration has achieved the '2.0% growth rate' it has mentioned so far.

The Bank of Korea will release the preliminary figures for the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2019 on the 22nd. President Moon Jae-in forecasted a 2% growth rate for last year during his New Year's press conference on the 14th. At that time, President Moon said, "I think the estimated economic growth rate will come out around the second half of this month, and I estimate it to be about 2%," adding, "Although it is lower compared to the past, among the '3050 Club' countries similar to us, it ranks second after the United States. I think we performed well despite difficulties."

Last year's quarterly economic growth rates were ▲Q1 -0.4%, ▲Q2 1.0%, and ▲Q3 0.4% compared to the previous quarter. Considering these figures, the growth rate for Q4 must be between 0.93% and 1.30% to achieve the annual target growth rate of 2.0%.

This is the result of a significant weakening in South Korea's economic growth due to expanded external risks from the US-China trade dispute, a downturn in the semiconductor market, and sluggish exports and construction investment. So far, the annual growth rate has fallen below 2% only in 1980 (-1.7%) during the second oil shock, 1998 (-5.5%) during the foreign exchange crisis, and 2009 (0.8%) right after the financial crisis.

On the 21st, the Bank of Korea will announce the producer price index for December last year. The producer price change rate for November recorded -0.1% year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of decline since July (-0.3%). The Bank of Korea will also release statistics on resident foreign currency deposits for December 2019 on the same day.

On the 20th, the External Economic Ministers' Meeting, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Hong Nam-ki, will be held to finalize this year's external economic policy direction. The meeting is expected to review this year's external conditions and discuss directions for promoting the New Northern Economic Policy. On the same day, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will revise its World Economic Outlook. While maintaining South Korea's growth forecast of 2.2% for this year, attention will be paid to whether there will be any changes in the global economic growth forecast.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.