[Expert Diagnosis①] Taiwan Choosing Tsai Ing-wen, What Is the Direction of Cross-Strait Relations?

[Asia Economy Taipei (Taiwan) = Special Correspondent Sunmi Park] "President Tsai Ing-wen's claim of defending sovereignty is different from the Taiwan independence movement. The Taiwan government will not be the first to change relations with China through provocative means. Didn't she mention dialogue with China when publicly announcing her election victory? Since China has confirmed Taiwan's resolve through this election, it will not take a tougher stance."

Tan Yaonan, Chairman of the Taiwan Cross-Strait Policy Association, said in an interview with this publication on the 12th after the Taiwan presidential election that the election results are unlikely to lead to a sharp cooling of cross-strait relations (between China and Taiwan).

Chairman Tan said, "President Tsai's re-election was a predictable scenario, but the result of her leading her competitor, Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu, by more than 2.6 million votes was unexpected. The two candidates had clearly different stances on cross-strait relations, which shows how strong the Taiwanese people's will to defend sovereignty is."

He emphasized that through this election result, the Taiwanese people clearly expressed their will to defend sovereignty, and that this was observed not only by mainland China but also by the international community. Since the will to defend sovereignty is not just President Tsai's personal view but the position of all Taiwan, China cannot respond harshly toward Taiwan until Taiwan takes practical steps to push for independence first.

Although President Tsai strongly mentioned Taiwan's will to defend sovereignty after her election, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Chinese State Council's response remained at the level of the original principle, stating it "adheres to the basic policy of peaceful reunification and One Country, Two Systems and the One-China principle," reflecting China's hesitation to implement a tough policy against Taiwan prematurely, he added.

The Taiwan government is also assessed to have a low possibility of provoking the Chinese government by pushing for Taiwan independence after President Tsai's re-election.

Chairman Tan said, "After her election, President Tsai mentioned eight characters: 'peace, equality, democracy, dialogue' regarding sovereignty defense," adding, "She sent a strong message that 'China must respect Taiwan's position to protect democracy and freedom and narrow differences through peaceful means on an equal footing.' Especially leaving room for dialogue suggests that Taiwan will not abruptly change its attitude toward China."

Chairman Tan added, "The Taiwan government wants to protect the people's freedom and will to defend sovereignty, not to take radical or extreme measures to legally separate Taiwan from China. Taiwan also wants to negotiate and dialogue with China. Since it wants to avoid conflict and maintain the status quo, it is more likely that constructive dialogue with China will be pursued during President Tsai's term."

However, he pointed out that before Taiwan can discuss sovereignty defense issues with China, it is an important task to unify the divided opinions within Taiwan.

Chairman Tan said, "Although the two political parties in Taiwan have expressed conflicting views on cross-strait relations, their core values regarding Taiwan's future are not significantly different. The government will try to unify and consolidate the divided internal opinions." He also advised, "Meanwhile, the Taiwan government should seek ways to reduce dependence on mainland China and diversify risks in preparation for worsening cross-strait relations."

▶Who is Tan Yaonan, Chairman of the Taiwan Cross-Strait Policy Association?

- Born in 1968.

- Holds a Master's degree in Political Science from National Taiwan University (1991) and a Ph.D. in Law from the University of Pittsburgh, USA (1996). He served as Senior Partner at Baker & McKenzie (1999?2016) and Visiting Researcher at the Brookings Institution (2008?2019). Since 2016, he has been Chairman of the Taiwan Cross-Strait Policy Association and has also served as an auditor for the American Chamber of Commerce since this year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.