[Politics, That Day...] Hwang Kyo-ahn's Candidacy Rumor 'Seoul Yongsan', Is It Really a Hardship District for the Korean Party?

Korean Party Presidential Candidate Ranks 3rd in Vote Share Among Seoul's 25 Districts in Yongsan... Higher Vote Share Than Songpa for Korean Party

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] ‘Politics, That Day…’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures.

Hwang Kyo-ahn, leader of the Liberty Korea Party, is attending the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 9th, receiving a report from an official before the meeting starts. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

What choice will Hwang Kyo-ahn, leader of the Liberty Korea Party, make in the 21st general election? The so-called ‘running in a difficult district’ theory is a matter of interest in political circles. The 21st general election on April 15 will be the first general election since Hwang entered politics. Without any experience as a member of the National Assembly, Hwang has the opportunity to enter the legislature through this election.

The focus of attention is whether Hwang will run as a proportional representative or in a local constituency. While it is not certain that the possibility of running as a proportional representative has disappeared, the view that he will run in a difficult district in the metropolitan area is gaining strength.

In politics, a difficult district refers to a vulnerable area where the chances of winning are slim even if one runs. Prominent politicians sometimes take the risk of running in so-called enemy territory, bearing the burden of losing. This can be seen as a gamble on their political future. If they win in a difficult district, the political achievement is beyond imagination. There is also speculation that he will face a fateful showdown with Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon in Jongno, Seoul.

Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon is moving to his seat passing behind Hwang Kyo-ahn, leader of the Liberty Korea Party, at the New Year's meeting of small and medium-sized business owners held at the Korea Federation of SMEs in Yeouido, Seoul on the 6th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Additionally, among the candidate districts for Hwang, Yongsan in Seoul is emerging as a dark horse. There is speculation that he will choose to run in Yongsan, a difficult district(?), to stir up momentum in the Han River belt. But is Yongsan really a difficult district for the Liberty Korea Party? The answer might change if we check the results the party achieved in Yongsan during the May 2017 presidential election.

In the May 2017 presidential election, Liberty Korea Party candidate Hong Joon-pyo received 20.78% of the vote in Seoul. Democratic Party candidate Moon Jae-in received 42.34%, and People's Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo received 22.72%. This means he was behind not only the Democratic Party but also the People's Party.

Analyzing the presidential election results across Seoul’s 25 districts reveals interesting details. Moon Jae-in recorded a vote share in the 30% range in only three districts, one of which was Yongsan. He received 39.33% in Yongsan, which was the third lowest after Gangnam-gu and Seocho-gu.

Based on Moon Jae-in’s results, Yongsan’s vote share ranks 23rd among Seoul’s 25 districts.

What about Hong Joon-pyo? He recorded 23.85% in Yongsan, exceeding his average vote share in Seoul. Hong’s vote share in Yongsan ranks third among Seoul’s 25 districts, following Gangnam-gu and Seocho-gu. The Liberty Korea Party’s presidential candidate recorded a higher vote share in Yongsan than in Songpa.

This is why it is difficult to classify Yongsan as a difficult district for the Liberty Korea Party. At that time, the Liberty Korea Party candidate outpolled the People's Party candidate in only four of Seoul’s 25 districts. Considering that in Jongno-gu the Liberty Korea Party had 21.84% and the People's Party had 21.83%, a very close result, it can be said that the party saved face in about three districts.

The Liberty Korea Party’s presidential candidate outperformed the People's Party in Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu, and Yongsan-gu. In Yongsan-gu, Hong Joon-pyo received 23.85%, while Ahn Cheol-soo received 21.74% of the vote.

Minister Jin Young of the Ministry of the Interior and Safety is announcing measures to strengthen traffic safety in school zones at the government Seoul office briefing room on the 7th. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

Then, what about the general election results? In the 20th general election, the Yongsan constituency was won by the Democratic Party candidate. Jin Young of the Democratic Party received 42.77%, while Hwang Chun-ja of the Saenuri Party received 39.91%. Is this result due to the Democratic Party’s support base?

There is also an interpretation that the personal power of politician Jin Young led to the victory. Politician Jin Young was elected in Yongsan in every election held since 2004: the 17th general election in 2004, the 18th in 2008, the 19th in 2012, and the 20th in 2016.

The equation ‘Yongsan = Jin Young’ was thus formed in general elections. Jin Young’s party affiliation was the Grand National Party, Grand National Party, Saenuri Party, and Democratic Party. Although he ran under the Democratic Party banner in the 20th general election, his roots lie in the Grand National Party.

In other words, from the 17th general election in 2004 to the 20th in 2016, no politician rooted in the Democratic Party has ever been elected in Yongsan. Judging by the general election results, Yongsan can be classified as a difficult district for the Democratic Party in Seoul and as a winnable area for the Liberty Korea Party.

If Hwang chooses Yongsan as his constituency, he can expect to win. However, if he chooses Yongsan and loses, the aftermath is expected to be severe. A defeat in Yongsan, where conservative-leaning politicians have traditionally held an advantage, could be a decisive setback on the road to the presidential election.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.