US-Iran, Full Confrontation Temporarily 'Paused'... "The Crisis Is Not Over Yet"

Iran Avoids Deadly Retaliation
US Chooses Economic Sanctions Over Military Strike
Risks Remain Due to Militia Rogue Actions

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The United States and Iran hit the 'brake' just before a full-scale military clash. Iran took out a large-scale but non-lethal retaliation card, while the U.S. opted for economic sanctions instead of the initially declared retaliatory strike on the Iranian mainland. For now, a full-scale confrontation has been avoided. However, the potential for escalation remains significant.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Signs of an exit strategy between the U.S. and Iran were detected starting with Iran's retaliatory attack before President Donald Trump's statement. Iran launched a retaliatory strike against U.S. troops stationed in Iraq under the operation name 'Martyr Soleimani,' but it did not deliver a fatal blow. Although dozens of missiles were fired, no confirmed casualties have been reported so far. This can be interpreted as Iran seeking revenge for the killing of their hero Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, by U.S. forces, while trying to avoid further escalation.

Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said, "Overall, Iran's response has been relatively moderate," adding, "If there had been multiple casualties, the situation would have unfolded very differently."

President Trump's decision to use economic measures instead of military retaliation is also seen as a sign of his intention to avoid escalation. Considering domestic public opinion, Iran intended to retaliate but avoid further conflict with the U.S., and the U.S. appears to have recognized this intention.

According to The Hill, a political magazine, Republican Senator James Inhofe, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said, "President Trump feels good that no Americans were killed at that time (during Iran's retaliatory attack)," and added, "Because of this, it seems the door to negotiations with Iran has opened." This suggests that Iran's ineffective retaliatory attack was interpreted as a kind of 'message' expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with the U.S.

However, the fact that both sides hit the brakes just before a clash does not guarantee stability. Less than a day after Iran's missile attack, two rockets were fired at the Green Zone in Baghdad, where the U.S. Embassy in Iraq is located. It remains unclear who launched the attack and from where. However, the possibility of an attack by Shiite militias supported by Iran is considered the most likely.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

A military official told CNN, "The militias supported by Iran appear to have maintained a personal cooperative relationship with Soleimani," but added, "It is questionable whether these militias will be properly controlled going forward." This means there is a possibility that militias, which were supported by Soleimani, might carry out retaliatory attacks on their own accord, regardless of the Iranian government's intentions.

Another factor to consider is the occurrence of global hacking incidents suspected to be the work of Iran. Since Soleimani's death, hacking activities have tripled, and it cannot be ruled out that Iranian hackers might launch retaliatory attacks using indirect channels.

Given President Trump's mention of strong economic sanctions, the level of these sanctions is also of interest. Before Soleimani's death, riots broke out in Iran due to worsening economic conditions. After withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the U.S. announced extensive sanctions on Iran's oil, transportation, and military sectors. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that Iran's real GDP would shrink by 9.5% last year. The unemployment rate is estimated to reach 16.8%, indicating significant suffering among the Iranian people. With the U.S. promising additional sanctions, Iran's economic hardship is bound to worsen.

The Associated Press reported, "The U.S. Departments of Commerce, State, and Treasury do not disclose sanction details in advance," but added, "The scope of sanctioned individuals, companies, and organizations could be expanded."

There is analysis that the economic sanctions card the U.S. holds is still available. Richard Goldberg, a researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) affiliated with the White House National Security Council (NSC), said, "It would be a mistake to think the U.S. is imposing the maximum sanctions on Iran," adding, "The current sanction intensity is about 8.5 out of 10, and there are still many means to increase the level of sanctions."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.