Chinese Experts: "War Is Possible... The Key Is the Extent of U.S. Retaliation"

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Park Sun-mi] Experts on Middle Eastern issues in China are warning of the risk of a sudden escalation after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps launched retaliatory attacks at dawn on the 8th (local time) against the US military's Ain al-Asad Airbase in Iraq and other locations.

According to the Global Times on the 8th, Hua Liming, former Chinese ambassador to the UAE and an expert at a Middle East research institute in China, said, "The important thing now is how the US responds to Iran's retaliation," adding, "If the military actions of both sides spiral out of control, the risk of war increases, which would be very dangerous for the entire world."

He explained, "The US Congress, public opinion, and the upcoming election are pressuring Trump, so the US will definitely take additional measures against Iran," and added, "The key lies in how far the US will retaliate and whether it will take steps to de-escalate the situation."

He also said, "Since Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, was killed by a US attack, the anger of the Iranian people has reached its peak, so Iranian leaders likely had no other choice but to carry out this attack," adding, "Iran's retaliation is a natural consequence."

Yang Xiyu, director of the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), also expressed the view that the possibility of this Iranian retaliation leading to war cannot be ruled out.

He explained, "If (both sides) do not stop, war is inevitable," and added, "It is important that Iran and the US exercise restraint, and that the international community immediately halts the current escalating tensions."

He continued, "Even if the US and Iran had no intention of engaging in full-scale war, political factors and the spread of irrational atmospheres could inevitably lead to an uncontrollable war," and added, "The UN and other key countries involved must mediate to prevent the situation from escalating."

Tang Zichao, head of the Political Research Office at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Chinese state-run Xinhua News Agency, "The US will likely seek symmetrical retaliation based on confirmed casualties," diagnosing, "Although the two sides are exchanging retaliations and it cannot be said that war has started, if they do not exercise restraint, the degree of retaliation could rapidly intensify."

Sun Degang, a researcher at the International Studies Institute of Fudan University and a Middle East expert, expressed concern, saying, "If the US judges that Iran's retaliation has crossed the 'red line,' it may take retaliatory measures and even possibly conduct airstrikes targeting locations within Iran."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.