[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Full-scale War Scenario in Case of North Korean Provocation... Feasibility Analysis

[Asia Economy Reporter Yang Nak-gyu] Will next year's North Korea-US relations revert to the 'fire and fury' phase? As North Korea refuses the US's calls for dialogue and takes a hardline stance, the US is signaling that it would not hesitate to take military action. This implies that the 'Bloody Nose' strategy, considered during the 'fire and fury' phase in 2017, could be brought back. Of course, it is not easy for the Bloody Nose strategy to materialize. A government official said, "While South Korea and the US have indeed developed and trained various operational plans considering different wartime scenarios, war is not easy," adding, "Political factors and various other issues must be taken into account." [Editor's note]

◆What is the Bloody Nose Strategy? = The Bloody Nose strategy is divided into preemptive strike and preventive strike. Prior agreement between South Korea and the US is essential for a preemptive strike. If there are clear signs of North Korea's war provocations, South Korea and the US hold emergency annual Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) and Military Committee Meeting (MCM) to assess the situation. Subsequently, the South Korean government recommends to the president through the National Security Council (NSC) and obtains approval for the preemptive attack. If the preemptive strike is conducted under the right of self-defense, the National Assembly is notified, but approval is obtained after the strike.

Preparation is necessary for a preemptive strike. The preparation signal is the Defcon (Defense Readiness Condition) alert. Defcon is an operational term meaning 'defense readiness posture against enemy provocations' on the Korean Peninsula. The levels range from 5 to 1, depending on North Korean military movements. At the highest level, Defcon 1, mobilization orders are declared, and wartime operations commence.

Upon Defcon alert, South Korea-US forces operate according to operational plans (OPLAN). The current operational plans applied in South Korea are developed by the US Pacific Command and start with numbers in the 5000 series. The plans include 'OPLAN 5029' for sudden changes in North Korea, and 'OPLAN 5027' for full-scale war. This year, a new 'OPLAN 5015' was created, integrating peacetime plans responding to localized provocations and including preparations for North Korea's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) such as nuclear and missile threats, cyber warfare, and biochemical warfare.

In the early stages of full-scale war, a preemptive strike is carried out. South Korea and the US have focused on practicing pinpoint strikes targeting Pyongyang's Yongbyon nuclear facilities, key command centers, and major missile bases throughout North Korea. There are 700 Joint Defense Point Intercepts (JDPI). This is the so-called 'Shock and Awe' operation first demonstrated in the Iraq War.

For this, Hyunmoo-2 ballistic missiles, Hyunmoo-3 cruise missiles, 800 km ballistic missiles, supersonic cruise missiles, and Taurus air-to-ground missiles are mobilized. The US military also participates in the preemptive strike. Aegis-class cruisers and destroyers at US bases in Japan are equipped with hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which were used in bombing Syrian airbases. Nuclear-powered submarines are also deployed. Ohio-class submarines carry nuclear missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles. The Air Force joins as well. B-2 stealth bombers from Andersen Air Force Base in Guam, B-1B strategic bombers known as the 'Death Swan' from the US mainland, and F-35A stealth fighters along with F-22 Raptors from Iwakuni Air Base in Japan are dispatched.

Before and after the preemptive strike, the US Air Force's RC-135 series 'three-piece set' is deployed. They gather enemy signals intelligence, electronic intelligence, and communications intelligence to detect enemy locations, intentions, and threatening activities in advance. The RC-135 series includes the highly regarded reconnaissance assets: RC-135W Rivet Joint, RC-135U Combat Sent, and RC-135S Cobra Ball.

After the preemptive strike, full-scale war is virtually inevitable. This means 'OPLAN 5027' is activated. According to OPLAN 5027, the South Korean military proceeds through three stages: Stage 1 (forward defense to defend Seoul), Stage 2 (securing key areas, destroying North Korean military forces, and preventing further attacks), and Stage 3 (US ground forces and South Korean forces initiate amphibious landing operations at Wonsan and advance northward).

◆ US Forces in Japan Are Key = In full-scale war, US forces stationed in Japan join the operation. Japan has seven UN Command rear bases that can be used without Japanese government approval in emergencies. These include Yokosuka (Navy), Yokota (Air Force), Camp Zama (Army), and Sasebo (Navy) on the Japanese mainland, as well as Kadena (Air Force), White Beach (Navy), and Futenma (Marine Corps) in Okinawa.

The US 7th Fleet is stationed at Yokosuka, where the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan is currently docked. The carrier strike group, consisting of 19 vessels including the so-called 'floating military base' USS George Washington, command ships, nuclear-powered submarines, cruisers, destroyers, and frigates, forms the core power of the 7th Fleet. Of these, 10 ships are based in Yokosuka, 7 in Sasebo, and 2 in Guam. Ships departing from Yokosuka can reach the Korean Peninsula within 48 hours.

After the preemptive strike, missiles launched by the enemy are intercepted by Aegis-class destroyers belonging to the carrier strike group. They are equipped with the latest SM-3 Block 2A missiles, which have an extended interception altitude and range of 1,500 km. North Korean intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), as well as Chinese Dongfeng-41 and Dongfeng-5 ICBMs, can be intercepted through integrated operations with ground-based interceptors (GBI) deployed in Alaska.

Recently, the USS America was added to the 7th Fleet, effectively establishing a two-carrier system. The America is a state-of-the-art amphibious assault ship (LHA-6) capable of operating 36 aircraft, including 23 F-35B vertical takeoff and landing stealth fighters and MV-22B Osprey tiltrotor aircraft that transport a battalion-sized assault force. Considering that the US military typically deploys one carrier per fleet, this is an exceptional force. Additionally, the semi-stealth transport amphibious ship New Orleans, weighing 25,000 tons, has been stationed at Sasebo Port. The New Orleans also carries multipurpose helicopters such as the Osprey (MV-22).

Operations by the US Marine Corps in Japan proceed simultaneously. The US Marines consist of the forward-deployed strategic maneuver unit, the 3rd Marine Division, the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Brigade, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, the 1st Marine Aircraft Wing, and the 3rd Marine Logistics Group. From Futenma Marine Air Base, the US deploys troops and weapons into enemy territory using the C-5 Galaxy, the largest US transport aircraft. The C-5 can carry 20 crew members, 345 fully armed troops, M1A1 tanks, and M-113 armored personnel carriers.

Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, home to the 18th Fighter Wing of the 5th Air Force and special operations units, is the largest in Asia, five times the size of Gunsan Air Base (445 km²). The base hosts 54 F-15 fighters, E-3 command aircraft, KC-135 aerial refueling tankers, and over 110 aircraft ready for sortie. Recently, even retired stealth aircraft have been integrated with US forces in Japan. This includes the reappearance of the F-117A Nighthawk, the US's first stealth aircraft retired in 2008. The US Navy's most powerful and latest forces are thus deployed in Japan, the closest location for operations on the Korean Peninsula.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.