[2020 Financial Weather Forecast] 'Lotto Subscription'... Demand Expected to Concentrate in Gangnam Area Including Dunchon Jugong and Gaepo

Price Caps Boost Market Gains... Flood of Supply in Gwangmyeong New Town

[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Jiwon] With the expanded implementation of the price ceiling on pre-sale prices, expectations for 'lottery subscription' have increased, and this year's pre-sale market is expected to continue the enthusiasm comparable to last year.

According to the real estate industry on the 3rd, the nationwide private construction industry's apartment pre-sale volume this year is estimated to reach about 325,000 households. Among them, the pre-sale volume in the metropolitan area is 184,253 households, accounting for more than half of the total volume. Compared to the pre-sale plan volume surveyed at the same time last year, it has decreased by 15.7%, and with the expected influx of 'lottery apartments' due to the price ceiling on private land, the metropolitan pre-sale market is expected to overheat.

Currently, the government has designated most major autonomous districts, including the Gangnam area of Seoul, as targets for the price ceiling on pre-sale prices, as well as cities such as Gwacheon, Gwangmyeong, and Hanam.

First, in Seoul, before the exemption period for the price ceiling on pre-sale prices ends on April 29, large-scale pre-sales will continue in redevelopment complexes in Gangbuk and Gangnam. The most notable is the Dunchon Jugong reconstruction in Dunchon-dong, Gangdong-gu, scheduled for April. It is a mammoth complex with a total of 12,032 households, with 4,841 households available for general pre-sale. The association expects a target price of 35.5 million KRW per 3.3㎡ for general pre-sale. Considering that the surrounding market price far exceeds 40 million KRW per 3.3㎡, a price difference of several hundred million KRW can be expected for an exclusive area of 84㎡.

The Heukseok 3 District in Dongjak-gu, scheduled for pre-sale in March, is also considered a popular subscription area in the first half of the year. Among 1,772 households, 364 households per month will be released for general pre-sale. Gaepo-dong Jugong 1 Complex (6,642 households) in Gangnam-gu is scheduled for October, and Yongdu 6 District Raemian (1,048 households) in Dongdaemun-gu is scheduled for general pre-sale in April. In addition, large volumes will be released in Susaek 6 (1,223 households), Susaek 7 (672 households), and Jeungsan 2 District (1,386 households) in Eunpyeong-gu, as well as Jangwi 4 District (2,840 households) in Seongbuk-gu.

The New Town area in Gwangmyeong City also attracts attention. Gwangmyeong New Town District 15 and District 2 in Gwangmyeong-dong are both scheduled for pre-sale within the year. District 15 Gwangmyeong Prugio Centville is a complex of 1,335 households, with 460 households for general pre-sale. District 2, expected to be generally pre-sold around November, is attractive with a complex size of 3,344 households.

In addition, new pre-sales are waiting in key metropolitan areas with excellent access to Seoul, such as Seongnam (Shinheung 2 District), Hanam (Hanam C District), and Namyangju (Donong 2 District). An industry official said, "Some volumes are expected to be adjusted next year due to the price ceiling on pre-sale prices," adding, "Due to concerns about supply contraction and expectations of rising house prices, most will record high subscription competition rates."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.