"Bangtanomics Is Coming... Expected to Boost Korea's GDP by 0.35% by 2040"

NH Investment & Securities: “Teen Fandom Will Transform GDP in 20 Years... South Korea Poised to Benefit from the Fandom Economy”

According to an analysis by the securities industry, the purchasing power of ARMY, the global fanbase of BTS (Bangtan Sonyeondan), could potentially boost South Korea's annual GDP by 0.1 to 0.35 percentage points by around 2040. The outlook suggests that once the current core fandom—now in their teens and twenties—matures into a consumer class with real purchasing power, South Korea could become a major beneficiary of the fandom economy.

On May 21, Jeong Yeo-kyung, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, stated in the report “K-Fandom Economy: Bangtanomics” that “preferences formed in one's teens can transform GDP 20 years later.” Jeong explained, “Fandom formed during adolescence translates into lifetime consumption,” and predicted, “From 2032 onward, we expect to see a gradual return of global ARMY consumption to Korea.”

The background for this analysis is the so-called “cohort consumption” phenomenon, in which a group (cohort) that shares similar characteristics and experiences during their formative years continues to exhibit similar consumption patterns into adulthood. This effect is credited not only for the rise of the fandom economy, but also for the era when 10 million Koreans traveled to Japan annually.

Jeong noted, “The main Korean consumers traveling to Japan were people in their thirties and forties who grew up in the mid-1980s with cultural icons such as Slam Dunk, Pokémon, Conan, and One Piece.” She explained, “About 20 to 30 years after these cultural influences are imprinted during their teens, consumption explodes when they gain purchasing power.” She added, “Just as the millennial generation in Korea, who grew up with Japanese culture, spends 9 trillion won per year on consumption in Japan, the consumption power of the global K-imprinted generation is likely to become visible from the 2030s.” She also mentioned that the core age group for K-pop fandom in emerging Asian and American regions is currently 13 to 24 years old.

In particular, it is noted that the core of the fandom economy is that demand created by a particular artist does not end as a short-term event but determines the lifelong consumption path of an entire population cohort.

Jeong stated, “If the United States has Beyoncé and Taylor Swift, Korea has BTS. If ARMY and other K-pop fandoms opened channels for Korean consumer goods exports in the 2010s, they are expected to gradually return as a driver of Korean tourism consumption starting from 2032 as they gain purchasing power.”

The stages leading up to fandom consumption impacting GDP can be divided into: ▲ music streaming purchases ▲ purchases of consumer goods such as beauty and food products ▲ tourism to Korea, among others. Considering the time lag for each stage, Korea’s GDP is estimated to increase by 0.1 to 0.35 percentage points annually around 2040. Specifically, under a baseline scenario where 5% of the global ARMY’s consumption shifts to Korean tourism, approximately 4.3 million additional tourists and 4.3 billion dollars in added tourism revenue are expected each year. Jeong explained, “If the conversion rate of ARMY fans traveling to Korea and per capita spending increase, the impact on Korea’s GDP could be even greater.”

This is expected to become an engine that partially fills the domestic demand gap in South Korea’s future era of low growth and an aging population. She expressed optimism, saying, “As the K-imprinted generation gains purchasing power and enters a consumption peak, South Korea will become a beneficiary of the fandom economy. This will serve as a structural force to offset the domestic consumption gap caused by population decline.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.