"Betting with Classified Info Earned $610,000"... U.S. State Department Bans Diplomats from Ceasefire Negotiation Wagers

WSJ: "Emerging as a Potential National Security Issue"

Special Forces Sergeant Earns $410,000 After Betting $33,000

The U.S. State Department has issued a directive to its diplomats around the world, instructing them not to place bets on websites that allow users to predict the outcome of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

On the 6th (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported this after obtaining an internal State Department directive.

Betting site Polymarket. AP Yonhap News

In the directive, the State Department warned, "Recent media reports have raised concerns that government officials are betting on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket using non-public information," emphasizing, "Such actions will not be tolerated under any circumstances."

Previously, U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke (38) was indicted last month on charges of earning hundreds of millions of won on betting sites using classified military information related to a secret operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Sergeant Van Dyke participated in the planning and execution phases of Operation Resolute Resolve, which involved capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and extraditing him to the U.S. on January 3. Despite having signed a non-disclosure agreement pledging to maintain operational security, he reportedly placed bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the operation. He is accused of betting about $33,000 (49 million won) using sensitive classified information and profiting approximately $410,000 (610 million won).

Sergeant Van Dyke is said to have transferred most of his earnings to an account using an anonymous email address at a cryptocurrency storage service. On January 6, he attempted to destroy evidence by requesting Polymarket to delete his account, claiming he had lost access to the associated email.

According to federal prosecutors, he participated in the planning and execution of the operation starting December 8 of last year, created his Polymarket account on December 26, and from the following day placed 13 bets on outcomes such as "U.S. forces will enter Venezuela" and "Maduro will be ousted by January 31, 2026," earning profits. His crimes were uncovered after a report from Polymarket. The charges against him include the unlawful use of government classified information for personal gain, theft of non-public government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and illegal financial transactions.

Regarding Van Dyke's crimes, Polymarket stated, "Insider trading cannot be tolerated on our platform," adding, "We actively cooperated with the investigation, including identifying traders who used confidential information and notifying the Department of Justice."

There have also been suspicions that several Polymarket account users placed bets on a ceasefire just hours before U.S. President Donald Trump announced a truce with Iran, earning significant profits. Notably, many of these users placed their first bets on the ceasefire immediately after opening their accounts.

The U.S. administration is pursuing measures to prevent government officials from profiting in loosely regulated prediction markets, out of concern that the rapid growth of online prediction markets poses a potential national security risk. There are also calls in the U.S. Congress to strengthen regulation of online prediction markets.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.