Global Economists: "AI to Drive Economic Growth Over the Next Three Years"

Samil PwC Conducts Survey of Economists Worldwide

Economists from various countries believe that while the US-China trade dispute and US economic policies will have a negative impact on the global economy in the short term, the introduction and utilization of generative artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to boost economic growth rates in the mid- to long-term.

On September 18, Samil PwC announced the results of a survey reflecting these views. According to the survey, 47% of respondents expect the economic growth rate to decline over the next year. The biggest risks expected to significantly affect the global economy were identified as trade disputes (27%) and US economic policies (26%), followed by geopolitical conflicts (17%) and inflation (11%). Meanwhile, despite the spread of AI, cyber risks are not currently perceived as a major short-term threat to the global economy.

In the mid- to long-term, an optimistic outlook for the global economy prevailed. Sixty-four percent of respondents predicted that the global economic growth rate would rise over the next three years through the introduction and utilization of AI. The industries expected to be most strongly impacted by AI were telecommunications and media, manufacturing, distribution and logistics, entertainment, and healthcare, in that order. The energy and consumer goods sectors were expected to be relatively less affected by AI.

This aligns with research conducted by PwC economists, who based their findings on AI adoption estimates and recent academic studies. According to this research, if AI brings about productivity improvements comparable to those of past technological innovations like electricity, the size of the global economy in 2035 could be nearly 15% larger than previously expected. PwC predicted that AI would bring about changes on par with the impact of the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century.

Economists also expressed concerns about the side effects of AI proliferation. The main concerns identified were personal data leaks and privacy violations (23%), the spread of fake news (23%), and the deepening of economic inequality (23%). In contrast, risks such as the loss of human control (10%) or damage caused by AI design malfunctions (9%) were considered relatively less worrisome.

Choi Jaeyoung, head of the Samil PwC Management Research Institute, stated, "This survey shows that as global uncertainty leads to downward revisions in growth forecasts for each country, the emergence of new technologies such as AI could become a new growth engine for the global economy," adding, "The Korean economy, which has entered a period of low growth, should also actively utilize AI to enhance productivity."

This survey was conducted among economists who attended the Econometric Society World Congress (ESWC) held last month at COEX in Gangnam District, Seoul. A total of 111 economists participated, with 59% from Asia, 14% from Europe, 14% from North America, and 6% from Africa. The Econometric Society World Congress is the world's largest academic conference in economics, organized by the Econometric Society every five years, and was held in Korea for the first time this year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.