Export-Import Bank Predicts 3-4% Decrease in Q3 Exports Year-on-Year

Increased Economic Uncertainty Due to U.S. Tariffs
Tariff Impact Expected to Intensify in the Second Half of the Year

The Overseas Economic Research Institute under the Export-Import Bank of Korea predicted on August 4 in its report, "Evaluation of Export Performance in the Second Quarter of 2025 and Outlook for the Third Quarter," that exports in the third quarter of this year will reach approximately $167 billion (about 231.0445 trillion won), which is expected to be a decrease of 3-4% compared to the same period last year.

The Export-Import Bank of Korea noted that the export leading index temporarily rebounded in the second quarter due to large-scale, long-term orders in the railway and defense industries. However, as signals of export market contraction persist, the bank expects the slowdown in exports to continue for the time being.

An official from the Export-Import Bank of Korea stated, "Economic uncertainty is increasing due to factors such as the imposition of tariffs by the United States, and the effect of advance orders for inventory observed in the first half of the year is also diminishing. As a result, the impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in the second half of the year." The official added, "Although tariff renegotiations with the United States have been concluded, depending on future changes in the trade environment, the extent of the decrease in exports could either be reduced or further expanded."

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