"Trump's Tariff Policies Pose Less Risk of U.S. Recession Than Feared"

"More Pessimistic Than Before Trump's Inauguration,
But More Optimistic Than in April"

Experts have analyzed that the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies on the U.S. economy may be smaller than initially feared.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 12th (local time) that a survey of economic experts showed higher forecasts for economic growth and job creation, and a lower risk of recession compared to three months ago. The survey was conducted from the 3rd to the 8th of this month with 69 economic experts.

New York Stock Market. Yonhap News

According to the report, on average, economic experts expect the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for inflation, to grow by 1% year-on-year this year. They also forecast that the U.S. economic growth rate will rebound to 1.9% next year, which is similar to the average forecast from the previous survey.

The change in experts' outlook appears to reflect the fact that President Trump's trade policies have somewhat softened compared to immediately after his inauguration.

In the previous survey conducted in April, President Trump was actively threatening to impose tariffs on major trading partners. However, since then, the imposition of many high tariffs, including so-called "reciprocal tariffs," has been postponed, and negotiations with trading partners have taken place.

WSJ explained that improvements in economic indicators such as employment in the U.S. over the past three months have also influenced experts' forecasts. The average monthly job growth during this period was 150,000, which is higher than the estimate in April. The unemployment rate stood at 4.1% last month, remaining within the average range of the past year.

In particular, the fact that inflation caused by tariffs has not intensified was cited as a key factor. In May, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding volatile energy and food prices rose 2.8% year-on-year, marking the lowest level in four years.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.