WSJ "China Ready to Blockade Taiwan... Uncertain if US Will Defend"

"From Air Strikes to Cyber Isolation:
Stages of the Blockade"

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed on the 23rd (local time) a scenario of the Chinese military's blockade of Taiwan.

EPA Yonhap News

Based on statements from participants in recent Taiwanese war games and analyses from U.S. and Taiwanese experts, WSJ presented a scenario divided into five major stages: "air strikes, encirclement, filling gaps by the Chinese Coast Guard, separation from the outside world, and cyber isolation."

The attempt to cut off Taiwan from the outside world is likely to begin with air strikes on Taiwan's military facilities, ports, airports, and energy infrastructure, involving a large deployment of Chinese combat aircraft, helicopters, and drones.

The Chinese Air Force possesses about 1,900 fighter jets and 500 bombers. The Chinese Rocket Force has over 3,000 missiles capable of reaching Taiwan. Subsequently, Chinese warships maintain distance to avoid Taiwan's anti-ship missiles while patrolling around Taiwan. In particular, the Chinese carrier strike group equipped with J-15 carrier-based fighters is deployed southeast of Taiwan, posing a threat to U.S. forces and others.

China has the largest naval fleet in the world with more than 370 warships, and it is projected to reach 425 ships by 2030, significantly surpassing the U.S. fleet of 304 ships. Its shipbuilding capacity, including warships, is also among the world's best.

Although China's aircraft carrier capabilities are analyzed to be inferior to those of the U.S., China is striving to catch up, with expectations to commission its third carrier, the Fujian, into active service this year. Chinese Coast Guard patrol vessels also deploy to bolster forces, while Chinese submarines may lay mines at major Taiwanese ports to block merchant ship access. Additionally, Chinese cargo ships could be used to damage Taiwan's undersea cables. Earlier this year, a similar incident occurred, leading Taiwan to detain suspicious Chinese vessels.

In fact, last October, China mobilized 125 military aircraft to conduct encirclement drills around Taiwan, describing them as combat readiness exercises including maritime and land attacks and port blockades. The blockade is reportedly the strongest military option ordered by Chinese President Xi Jinping, instructing to complete preparations to attack Taiwan by 2027. The goal is to surround the island, isolate it from the world, and induce Taiwan's surrender.

However, WSJ pointed out that this would trigger a global crisis as an act of war. It would provoke Taiwan's military response, force the U.S. to decide whether to defend Taiwan, and prompt European countries to impose punitive sanctions on China.

Taiwan is assessed to be vulnerable to China's blockade. It depends on foreign oil, coal, and natural gas for 96% of its total energy supply and imports about 70% of its food. China could exploit this by announcing new inspection regulations on ships heading to Taiwan, detaining vessels transporting energy resources and food.

However, most military experts agree that preparing for a Chinese amphibious landing operation would not be easy. Taiwan's coastline is often rugged, with cliffs and mudflats making ship landings difficult.

Analysts suggest that the biggest factor in determining whether China will actually carry out a blockade operation against Taiwan is U.S. President Donald Trump's diplomacy toward Taiwan. Huang Chung-ting, a researcher at Taiwan's Defense Security Research Institute, said, "The most terrifying scenario related to the blockade starts from U.S. isolationism, where the U.S. decides to completely withdraw from the Taiwan issue."

As seen in the U.S. approach to Ukraine, which is at war with Russia, it remains uncertain whether President Trump will take action to defend Taiwan.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.